Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160210 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1010 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry cold front exits tonight. High pressure Friday. Next low pressure system late Friday night/Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1010 PM Thursday... Will update sky cover overnight and Friday morning based on latest models and satellite trends, keeping upslope clouds a bit further north. As of 222 PM Thursday... A dry cold front exits east of the mountains tonight. Behind it, a high pressure will build to keep a cold northerly flow through Friday. Expect sub freezing night temperatures through the weekend. Lingering low level moisture and northwest flow will produce upslope light snow over the northeast mountains through tonight. Accumulations will not be significant.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 305 PM Thursday... ***Freezing rain possible Saturday Morning*** All the uncertainty in the short term forecast comes early on in the period. Confidence is fairly high at this time that at least most of SE Ohio and Northern West Virginia will remain below freezing at the surface into Saturday morning, but confidence is a low as you head further south along the I64 Corridor. Low pressure will move east out of the Plains Friday night. A warm front will approach the region from the south, with warm air advection/overrunning aloft pushing T850 to 3C to 5C from south to north by 12Z Saturday. Timing of precipitation will determine how far south we will see a period of freezing rain before warming above freezing later Saturday morning. Latest model runs have the precip moving in quicker than the 00Z suite did, so have a little more ice accumulation than previous forecast. SE Ohio and Northern WV should have the best potential to see any impacts from freezing rain Saturday morning, as surface temps should hold below freezing there the longest. Eventually, all areas should warm up enough for a changeover to just rain by Saturday afternoon. Will continue to highlight the icing potential in the HWO for now. This system will exit our region on Saturday night and high pressure will build in behind it. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 PM Thursday... Models are in good agreement with our next system pushing in late Monday. Should be warm enough on the front edge of this system to see primarily rain, but the higher elevations could see some snow. However, as this system passes us, it will wrap cold air into the region once again. Although very late in the forecast period, guidance tends to agree that another deep upper trough settles over the Eastern U.S. mid week. Yes, the calendar may say it is the first day of Spring, but it is possible that we could have snowflakes flying once again. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 655 PM Thursday... Some MVFR clouds and possibly some MVFR/IFR snow showers can be expected later tonight and early Friday over northeastern WV. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions in northeastern WV later tonight and Friday morning could vary in timing and intensity. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 03/16/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday into Saturday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.