Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171646 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1246 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms possible today into tonight, with a cold front moving through tonight. Another round of showers and storms Friday morning with a cold front, cooler this weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 AM Wednesday... Models showing a couple of lines of moisture coming toward the area today in advance of a cold front. The first one is arriving now from the west, but the precipitation is falling out of mid deck, so will be light. The next one arrives in eastern Ohio and eastern Kentucky around daybreak, pushing eastward through the area during the day. This could produce some showers and thunderstorms, but instability is not impressive with effective layer CAPE values of only 400 to 600. The more interesting potential arrives with the cold front late this afternoon into the evening hours. Meso NAM shows effective layer CAPE in the 1100 to 1300 range in central Ohio with low level helicity of 200-400. This would allow for large hail and maybe even tornados. With mid level dry air in place, downbursts and/or microbursts are also possible. As the cold front pushes eastward through the area Wednesday night, less energy is available over Kentucky and eastern West Virginia, so expect to the storms to gradually weaken. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Wednesday... Mid-level heights rise Thursday in response to transient shortwave ridging moving east with well above normal temperature values values for mid April - highs across the lower elevations in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Subsidence with this feature will keep skies mainly clear with a precipitation free forecast. Surface low pressure transiting north of the Upper Great Lakes will yield cold frontal passage early Friday morning into the day Friday. There is some question to the amount of instability available with early morning frontal passage - could see some strong to possibly severe early morning storms with around 35KTs of effective layer shear if it comes in on the higher end of the spectrum. The cold front exits east Friday night with any lingering precipitation becoming confined to the mountains by early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1230 PM Wednesday... The weekend looks to be on the cooler side, but mostly dry, as the area will be under the influence of high pressure post FROPA. Weekend high temperatures will be in the high 50s and 60s across the lowlands, with the mountains staying down in the 40s to the low 60s. Dry weather will be in place Saturday until Sunday morning, where a slight chance of showers and storms are possible across the southwestern VA and eastern WV mountains. Patchy frost looks possible Sunday night, especially across the northern WV lowlands/mountains and across southeast OH. Next week looks to show a gradual warming trend with a system affecting the area Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 600 AM Wednesday... A low level jet will continue to cause spots of low level wind shear early this morning for eastern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia. A line of showers and possibly thunderstorms will then push across the area today, possibly causing some brief restrictions. Outside of any showers and thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions. A cold front will move through tonight. Some thunderstorms with the cold front could become severe, especially over southeast Ohio and northwest West Virginia. Some MVFR clouds are possible behind the cold front Wednesday night, especially over the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR is anticipated.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...RPY

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