Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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279 FXUS61 KRLX 221003 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 603 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses tonight. High pressure to end the work week but more unsettled weather arrives in time for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM Tuesday... Most models showing a band of showers and thunderstorms working its way across the forecast area today, although the HRRR goes for more of a diurnal trend. Will generally go with the concept of the band marching across the area but drop pops to chance during the late morning since this is the normal climatological minimum for convection. A cold front this pushes through the area tonight. Deeper moisture moves off to the east before the cold front pushes through, so will keep only chance pops with the frontal boundary. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM Tuesday... Dry air advects in behind the front for Wednesday with dewpoints dropping in the afternoon. High pressure noses in from the north before sliding off to the east on Friday. This will keep a comfortable airmass in place, relatively speaking, though remaining warm. Expect dense river valley fog each morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 329 AM Tuesday... A tropical system meandering along the northern Gulf coast will combine with return from from the upper ridge off the southeast coast and an approaching upper level trof...for rounds of showers/storms over the weekend. PWATS surge to near 2 inches on Sunday with downpours potentially adding to a flooding concern. Kept thunder on a diurnal trace in this pattern.. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 600 AM Tuesday... Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today, causing some restrictions. Outside of the showers and thunderstorms, the only restrictions expected are for some patchy fog early this morning. A cold front will move through Tuesday night, with additional showers and thunderstorms possible. Some MVFR clouds are possible along and behind the front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions in showers and thunderstorms could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L H L H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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