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385
FXUS61 KRLX 081547
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1147 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms remain possible the rest of the week,
as a front wobbles in and out of the region. Some storms may
contain locally very heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1143 AM Tuesday...

No significant changes in the near term forecast period. Frontal
boundary near Ohio River vcnty, will largely remain stationary
today, before lifting back northwards Wednesday, as low pressure
slowly nudges further north and east into the Great Lakes
region. A warm, humid, and unstable airmass continues to remain
in place, with observed PW values across most of the CWA
generally 1.5 to 1.9 inches. Showers and storms will fire again,
particularly this afternoon/evening during peak heating, and
from passing weak waves. As previous forecaster indicated,
models have trended with keeping the bulk of activity
along/south of the Ohio River/south/along front, but activity
can`t be ruled out anywhere. Although the bulk of the CWA
remains in a general thunder, an isolated strong to severe can`t
be ruled out, but an overall lack of significant shear should
keep things from becoming organized. Heavy downpours will also
be expected, and localized flooding could be an issue.

Expect areas of fog again tonight, particularly in places that
receive rain/storms today.

On Wednesday, the frontal boundary will move back north of the area.
Continued showers and storms across the region, some of which could
be strong to severe with a damaging wind potential.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1145 AM Tuesday...

Showers and storms will increase in coverage mid to late week,
as the potential exists for a surface low to move east through
the area, and a more potent upper shortwave trough affects the
area. Overall severe threat still looks to be on the low end
during this period, but plenty of instability, and a slight
uptick in shear could warrant an isolated strong to severe
storm. Heavy downpours will continue to be a threat, but storms
will have overall a little better movement than in the near term
period.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1145 AM Tuesday...

Weather continues to remain unsettled in the extended period with
uncertainty in details this far out. However, period looks to remain
hot and humid, with area largely in the warm sector, with showers
and storms possible from passing disturbances/heating. Continued
convection/associated cloud cover should hopefully strive to keep
temperatures and associated heat indices during the period below
advisory criteria.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 700 AM Tuesday...

Some low stratus and fog impacted mainly the northern and
northwestern parts of the CWA overnight, as expected, though
there were periodic MVFR conditions at EKN and HTS, too. Things
should lift and/or scatter out over the next hour or two, with
VFR conditions then expected as prevailing conditions around the
area the rest of the day and into the early overnight hours.

Did a blend of PROB30 and TEMPO groups for TSRA activity this
afternoon and early evening, depending on POPs and confidence
levels, though for now HTS was kept out of the activity.
Depending on rainfall today and potential for patches of
clearing overnight, we can expect more valley fog and/or low
stratus again tonight. Went with reduced conditions at CKB and
EKN, as they are more likely to see rain, and opted for VCFG at
CRW and PKB.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of convection may vary
from the forecast. Development of fog and/or low stratus tonight
could vary from what is currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...

Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under heavy showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
each day this week. Patchy IFR fog possible overnight.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK