Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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047 FXUS61 KRLX 251837 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 237 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level trough Saturday. High pressure and decent weather for Memorial Day, but more unsettled conditions should return by mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 225 PM Friday... Cumulus field is building this afternoon, but from visible satellite imagery, it is apparent that the relatively shallow saturated layer is having a head time feeding vertical development. Some small showers have popped over the Tug Fork Valley, and expect more coverage, especially in the mountains over the next few hours this evening. Some thunder is possible, but again, the dry air in the mid levels is going to be inhibitive to a large degree. Higher dewpoints are leading to milder overnight lows tonight. Expect an increase in rain chances early Saturday with the approach of the open wave aloft moving into the middle Ohio Valley, so the increase in POPs is not completely dependent on heating tomorrow. Coverage should increase with the added instability and moisture depth increases region wide. Lots of general thunder potential for the entire eastern third of the CONUS on Saturday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 217 AM Friday... For Saturday, moisture advection continues under southerly flow as suggested by models in the theta-e charts. Bufkit soundings suggest an almost saturated column with a tall skinny CAPE feature with equilibrium level up to 40,000 feet. PWATs will increase around 1.88 inches. Therefore, expect water loading with a poor shear environment Saturday afternoon. Overall, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some with brief heavy downpours, are expected to develop. The SREF/NAM/ECMWF concord on increasing moisture and pcpn activity. Several upper level ripples of vorticity will cross the area through at least Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely during the afternoons aided by the diurnal heating and abundant moisture through the beginning of the week. On Sunday, an air mass with tropical moisture will lift north and northeast from the Gulf of Mexico into AL, TN, WV and KY. Models show some disagreement on the actual track of the remnants of this tropical system. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 217 AM Friday... The remnants of a tropical system will gradually decay Monday. The associated moisture and afternoon heating will produce afternoon showers and storms. A cold front will try to sink through Monday night into Tuesday. Its timing could change as models do not resolve this feature well. By mid to late week, remnants of the tropical system pass by to our south, with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. There will be plenty of moisture to work with, and periods of heavy rain could occur. Flooding potential will depend on the track of the system and how much rainfall is accumulated from the showers and storms earlier in the week. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 PM Friday... Coverage of showers will increase over the next 3 to 6 hours as heating peaks, but only carrying prevailing SHRA at BKW. Lower chances elsewhere make prevailing a risky bet at this time. The chance for thunder is also on the lower side, so no mention in the TAF for this as well. AMDs possible as convection patterns form. EKN being hit hard for fog tonight by the LAMP guidance but lower everywhere else, and will ride this data for this issuance. If any terminal gets appreciable rain, that fog forecast potential for the overnight will need to be revisited. Winds remain under 10kts through the period. Rain/thunder chances increase on Saturday towards 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Terminals that get rain see brief IFR. May need to add TSRA for isolated/scattered cells. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/25/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...26

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