Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201726 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 126 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak cold front sags into the area today. Increasing chances of storms Monday and Tuesday. Cold front crosses mid week, followed by high pressure to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 115 PM Sunday... Did elect to reduce pops quite a bit this afternoon. Not seeing much in the way of development yet on radar or satellite, and recent model runs seem to indicate conditions too stable for much to form. Went ahead and elected to maintain a slight chance during peak heating, but not overly confident in that. The frontal boundary continues to linger across southeast Ohio this afternoon, but should continue to slowly sag south a little more today, before generally stalling out just south of or close to the Ohio River. The front will return north on Monday, as low pressure moves northeast into Ohio, with warm and humid conditions on Monday. More convection expected on Monday in warm sector, with most convection expected across southeast Ohio and the mountains, with less expected across lowlands of WV. We are still in a marginal risk for severe on Monday, but thinking overall threat looks low, as lacking significant shear/dynamics. Heavy downpours will accompany any convection. As with last night, any areas that are able to clear, will see fog development, particularly in favored river valleys. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Models showing moisture increasing on Monday, allowing for showers and thunderstorms, more so during the afternoon and evening hours. The moisture will remain through at least Tuesday. A cold front will then push through Tuesday night or Wednesday, with less model spread in the timing of the front as compared to model runs on previous nights. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 AM Sunday... A high pressure system will then provide a lull in the activity for Thursday and Friday. Considerable differences then begin to show up in the models in regards to when moisture will return to the region. Therefore, confidence in the forecast deteriorates for the beginning of the weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 125 PM Sunday... VFR conditions for much of the area through 04Z, when LIFR/VLIFR valley fog is expected to develop. Any fog will generally dissipate after 13Z for a return of VFR conditions area wide. However, convection will increase again particularly after 15Z, especially across southeast Ohio and mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent fog overnight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M M L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the beginning of the work week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.