Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 252304 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 704 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings very dry conditions through tonight, leading to an enhanced fire weather risk across the region through this evening. The next system brings rain Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 700 PM Monday... Made minor tweaks to temperatures, dew points, and cloud cover over the next several hours, but the forecast generally remains on track. Gusty conditions continue across the region amid RH values currently in the 10-20% range across much of the CWA. Please continue to follow local/state burn laws, and if possible, avoid burning altogether until the region receives a wetting rain later on Tuesday. As of 400 PM Monday... A Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of our southeast Ohio counties after coordination with neighboring WFOs and Wayne National Forest. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 153 PM Monday... A large surface low pressure system moves from the plains, northeast into the Great Lakes early Tuesday morning. Its proximity will tighten up the pressure gradient locally to produce strong southerly gusty winds tonight into Tuesday. Deep southerly flow will bring moisture and WAA to the area, spreading periods of rain as the atmosphere saturates from top to bottom overnight. Better chances for showers arrive the the Middle Ohio valley by 7 AM Tuesday, spreading east to affect the rest of WV into Tuesday night. Limited instability will prevent thunderstorms to become widespread. Chances for thunderstorms are low attm. SPC has the area under general thunderstorms. Surface southeast winds will prevail through tonight. Strong southerly winds aloft (H850) this evening will increase from 20 to 50 knots by midnight. Momentum transfer from local soundings suggest gusts of 20 to 30 knots could mix down the surface under southeast downslope during the overnight hours. Gusts up to 50 knots are likely along the higher terrain. Therefore, a wind advisory remains in effect for the central and northern mountains, including portions of southeast WV through 1 PM Tuesday. Mild temperatures under increasing southerly flow expected tonight, generally in the mid to upper 40s lowlands, ranging into the mid 30s northeast mountains. For highs on Tuesday, temperatures will generally be around 60 degrees lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s northeast mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 205 PM Monday... The region will be in the warm sector under continued southeasterly downslope Tuesday night. Would not expect too much additional precipitation during the overnight hours with very dry air noted just off the surface, especially in those areas with enhanced downslope. The surface cold front approaches Wednesday morning, but given a rather dry column preceding it, will be difficult to coax out more than a few hundreths of additional accumulation during the day Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 205 PM Monday... Cooler and generally drier weather then takes hold for the remainder of the work week under northwesterly flow for the lower elevations. Could see some of the periphery of moisture associated with a southern stream system running up the coast producing some very light rain and perhaps a couple snowflakes in the mountains during the day Thursday, but accumulations are not expected to amount to more than a couple hundreths of an inch. A weak shortwave embedded in northwesterly flow moves through the region Friday with some cooler air moving over the warming Great Lakes. This could yield some light upslope snow in the mountains Friday morning with little, if any accumulation. As we head into the weekend a pipeline of Gulf enhanced moisture sets up across the Deep South into the TN Valley with a parade of northern stream disturbances lined up and some coupling of southern stream energy possible. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 152 PM Monday... High pressure to our east continues to provide widespread VFR conditions through tonight. Winds will increase this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient tightens up while a low pressure system approaches from the west. The low will move from the plains, northeast into the Great Lakes region, while a warm front/cold front system will spread rain showers across the area starting Tuesday morning. Surface wind gusts will reach around 20 kts by late afternoon, and then up to around 25 kts tonight. Peak wind gusts across could reach 35 to 47 knots along and nearby the central mountains tonight. A wind advisory is in effect for portions of the central mountains and southeast WV until Tuesday afternoon. Therefore, expect the strongest winds at BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of onset of gusty winds this afternoon or evening is uncertain. Gusty winds will fluctuate, which could allow for LLWS to develop during lulls. LLWS tonight could develop even with some gusts mixing to the surface. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions may occur in any areas of rain late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... As of 500 PM Monday... Mixing this afternoon has resulted in rather low surface dew points across the region given a significant dry layer aloft. Meanwhile, afternoon temperatures have warmed to near, or above, 70 degrees, resulting in low RH values of generally 10-20 percent across the region. Additionally, southeast wind gusts of 15-30 MPH have been observed across the region (locally higher gusts in spots), resulting in an enhanced risk for wildfire spread through this evening. Given such, a Red Flag Warning has been issued until 9 PM for all of our southeast Ohio zones after coordination with Wayne National Forest, with a Special Weather Statement for increased fire danger out until 9 PM for the rest of our CWA (Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia). Relative humidity values will begin to slowly recover later this evening and through tonight, with values of 40-70 percent by dawn on Tuesday. Breezy to gusty southeast winds will continue tonight, especially in/near the higher terrain with downslope flow. Wind gusts of 20-30 MPH are possible across the lowlands overnight, with 30-50 MPH gusts possible in/near the higher terrain. A wetting rain is expected area-wide on Tuesday. Rain progresses west to east across the region throughout the day amid continued breezy to gusty southeast flow. Wind gusts of 15-25 MPH are possible area-wide, with higher gusts in/near the mountains. Relative humidity values Tuesday afternoon bottom out in the 30-55 percent range in/near the mountains, with higher values further west. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for WVZ015-025>027-034- 039-515>523-525-526. OH...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP/GW NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...ARJ FIRE WEATHER...GW

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