Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181020 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 620 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift through the area today. Another cold front moves through tonight into Thursday, with upslope snow Thursday night into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 620 AM Wednesday... Reduced POPs a bit now only including isolated sprinkles/flurries early this morning. Also adjusted temperatures based on current obs and trends. As of 120 AM Wednesday... Currently have surface high pressure across the forcast area, however a mid level warm front is lifting in from the south. This is already bringing some clouds across the coal fields. Expect these clouds to gradually lift northward across the forecast area into today. Some uncertainty whether we could get an isolated shower with this. Did include some isolated rain or snow showers across the central and northern mountains. These clouds should keep southern areas of the forecast area from freezing, with temperatures holding steady or even slightly increasing through dawn. Across the north, already have some below freezing temperatures. No changes to the ongoing freeze warning planned. A surface low will move through the lower Ohio River Valley today, and cross southern OH into PA tonight. This will drive a cold front through late this evening and early tonight. Expect a line of showers moving through with or just behind the front. Then, as an opening upper level low moves through tonight, expect lingering showers. Enough colder air filtering in by early Thursday morning that have some snow showers mixing in across the highest elevations of the northern mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... Light rain and snow showers to start the period on Thursday, as an upper shortwave trough moves through the region, transitioning to light upslope rain and snow showers later in the day Thursday into Friday in northwesterly flow. Temperatures on Thursday may take an initial fall, before steadying out somewhat as the day progresses. Little to no accumulation is expected from snow. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... High pressure, with dry, and gradually warming conditions over the weekend as upper ridging across the central U.S. builds and shifts eastward with time. Conditions will be quite dry over the weekend, with RH`s dipping into the 20 to 30 percent range, but winds overall will be quite light, thereby mitigating a significant fire threat. Precipitation chances return early next week as a low in southern stream moves east across the southern U.S., with best chances for precipitation across far southern and eastern zones. Another front for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 120 AM Wednesday... A mid level warm front will lift through early today, with an area of clouds. Kept things VFR based on newest hi-res guidance...but some MVFR may occur. VFR expected today in the warm sector, with MVFR to IFR ceilings overnight as a cold front moves through. Kept visibilities VFR with this for now, but may eventually need to add some restrictions there as well. Winds will be variable this morning, becoming southerly this afternoon...and then west to northwest tonight behind the front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ007>011- 016>020-027>031. OH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>086. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.