Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181952 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure center and associated cold front cross Tonight and Thursday, with upslope snow northeast mountains Thursday night into early Friday.
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As of 340 PM Wednesday... A sfc low pressure center will cross the area from west to east tonight. Its associated cold front will enhance showers along its path, but no significant rainfall accumulations are expected. Models suggest the front will reach central WV by 06Z. H850 charts indicate a development of a LLJ behind the front around 50 knots. Expect isentropic downslope in cold air behind the front to produce strong wings Tonight and Thursday. The mountain peaks will experience stronger winds and gusts up to 40 knots. Therefore, a Wind Advisory was issued for the higher elevations from eastern Raleigh, northeast to eastern Randolph counties in WV. By Friday, it will be cold enough to produce some upslope snow showers. Models suggest that an two short waves will provide more forcing to keep snow showers across the extreme northern WV and our northeast mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Wednesday... Rain showers give way to a wintry mix and snow showers across higher terrain Thursday night with cold air funneling in behind an eastbound cold front under NW flow. Overall, accumulations will generally be little to none through this event, limited primarily by ground temperatures. Temperatures are more favorable across the highest terrain, generally >3500-4000 ft, so accumulations up to 3" are possible given decent snowfall rates in an upsloping pattern. Gusty winds continue with this quick-hitting system and are covered by a wind advisory across higher terrain. Gusts will calm from the 20`s/30`s (kts, lowlands/mountains) Thursday evening to the single digits/20`s by Friday morning. Cold temperatures are expected Friday morning, dipping to near- freezing in the lowlands where the frost/freeze program is active. Have mentioned these temperatures in the HWO and have opted, after collaboration with neighbors, to not issue a Watch at this time. High pressure builds from the northwest Friday, making for a sunny day warming to the mid- to upper-50`s in the lowlands (40`s to near 50 in the mountains). Saturday morning has the best chance at reaching the Freeze Watch/Warning mark with continued (albeit weak) CAA from the north, calm winds, and clear skies opening the door for a good radiational cooling night. A warm trend starts Saturday with temperatures climbing into the 60`s in the lowlands under mostly sunny skies. High pressure begins to erode, though not entirely, as it shifts toward the East Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday... The warm trend continues with SE flow between a Northeast high pressure area and southern low pressure system through the end of the weekend and into the early part of the next workweek. Expect afternoon high temperatures to reach the mid- to upper 60`s in the lowlands on Sunday and to near 70 for Monday through Wednesday. Expect greater cloud coverage toward the southern counties than the northern. These conditions are contingent on the movement of the aforementioned southern low. At this time, models agree that a closed-low aloft will interrupt the otherwise ridging pattern of the Westerlies. It will shift from the Central Plains toward the East Coast through the long term period, as will its associated surface low pressure and rain/storms. Models do differ on timing, though more importantly they differ in impacts here. In general, the low will stay to the South of this area. However, a shortwave trough aloft will eventually ingest the closed-low over the eastern CONUS sometime mid-next week - which would bring rain showers at least into our southern and mountainous areas. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM Wednesday... Warm front lifting north as cold front approaches from the west. Mostly VFR expected this evening. Expect MVFR with cold front passage overnight and isold IFR in the mountains. In addition, surface gradients will be tight as low level jet max works across These winds forecasted to mix to the surface producing gusty west to southwest winds overnight area wide. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for WVZ516-518-520-522>524-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/MC NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...KMC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.