Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180201 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1001 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system brings rain and storms across the WV/VA/KY borders this evening. Another system arrives Monday night through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1000 PM Saturday... Just some minor tweaks to the forecast this evening. As of 230 PM Saturday... Still expecting thunderstorms to develop under an unstable atmosphere across the southern portions of the cwa through tonight. Periods of sunshine were noted on visible satellite images across Buchanan and Dickenson counties in southwest VA during the afternoon hours. Freezing levels around 8500 feet and PWATS around 0.8 inches will produce periods of small hail with any moderate shower. Thunderstorms are possible across the south could produce large hail and gusty winds. The NAM and RAP13 models show and area of 1000 J/Kg across the eastern KY into VA under high deep layered shear of around 70 knots. These parameters are enough to produce or sustain strong updrafts capable to produce large hail and/or damaging winds. Posted in HWO. Will keep monitoring conditions in the event of convective initiation take place nearby most unstable areas across the south. Conditions will improve tonight, when the warm advection should shuts down as the center of the weakening sfc low pressure system moves east across the KY and VA border. Weak boundary layer winds and clearing spreading from north to south could allow for areas of fog specially over areas that received rain, and/or low stratus overnight tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /4 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday... Moisture increases across the area again on Monday, with southeasterly flow developing. Could see a wintry mix or snow across the mountains Monday night into Tuesday morning, but elsewhere any precipitation will fall as rain. Low pressure tracks to our east on Tuesday and much colder air filters in behind this system. This should all the mountains to change to all snow by Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday... Much colder air across the region for the middle of the week as a upper trough settles over the Eastern U.S. Snow showers will be possible across most of the area on Wednesday, but current thinking is that any accumulations will be only in the mountains. High pressure will build in for the end of the week, which should keep us dry through Friday. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 655 PM Saturday... A wave along a frontal boundary will provide showers and thunderstorms this evening over southern WV and southwestern VA, with some hail possible. Some IFR ceilings can be expected north of the frontal boundary. As the system slowly moves off to the east tonight, clouds will slowly clear from north to south, although some clouds will remain over southern WV and southwestern VA by Sunday morning. Some fog may also form in the southern and central WV mountains. By Sunday afternoon, expect VFR at all locations. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Timing and placement of lower ceilings over southern WV and southwestern VA could vary. Fog timing, location, and density could vary. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and level of restrictions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 03/18/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M L L L L M M L L M L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR possible in precipitation Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.