Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180522 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 122 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will lift through the area today. Another cold front moves through tonight into Thursday, with upslope snow Thursday night into early Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 120 AM Wednesday... Currently have surface high pressure across the forcast area, however a mid level warm front is lifting in from the south. This is already bringing some clouds across the coal fields. Expect these clouds to gradually lift northward across the forecast area into today. Some uncertainty whether we could get an isolated shower with this. Did include some isolated rain or snow showers across the central and northern mountains. These clouds should keep southern areas of the forecast area from freezing, with temperatures holding steady or even slightly increasing through dawn. Across the north, already have some below freezing temperatures. No changes to the ongoing freeze warning planned. A surface low will move through the lower Ohio River Valley today, and cross southern OH into PA tonight. This will drive a cold front through late this evening and early tonight. Expect a line of showers moving through with or just behind the front. Then, as an opening upper level low moves through tonight, expect lingering showers. Enough colder air filtering in by early Thursday morning that have some snow showers mixing in across the highest elevations of the northern mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... A cold front from the West approaches Wednesday night with rain showers. The front reaches the Ohio River by around midnight, and is entirely passed the CWA by daybreak Thursday. This fast moving system only manages to eke out 0.25" or so of rainfall as it passes through the lowlands by mid- Thursday. After a lull in precipitation, low- to mid-level winds will back toward the NW in the CAA regime Thursday afternoon and turn the upslope snow machine on in the mountains of West Virginia. Overall, temperatures will be marginal to too-warm until sundown and ground temperatures will greatly limit accumulations - however abundant moisture and NW flow, plus the fact that snow will be prevalent during the overnight hours, mean minor accumulations are possible by Friday morning. Fairly strong winds are likely with this quick-hitting system, with mountain gusts in the mid-30`s knot range and lowlands in the 15-20 kt range. High pressure builds from the northwest Friday and will gradually dry the mountains up and clear skies through the day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 PM Tuesday... Gradual warming takes place under dry, weak high-pressure conditions through the weekend and into the work-week. Lowland highs near 60 (mtns near 50) on Saturday increase to near 70 (mtns near 60) by Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cut-off low aloft and its associated surface low/rain showers lurk to our South... however models agree today, unlike yesterday, that the system will stay to the South, and thus have stuck with the consensus- blend of low-PoPs until some slight-chance noses into the SE Tuesday. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 120 AM Wednesday... A mid level warm front will lift through early today, with an area of clouds. Kept things VFR based on newest hi-res guidance...but some MVFR may occur. Could even get some light rain or snow showers across the central and northern mountains. VFR expected today in the warm sector, with MVFR to IFR ceilings overnight as a cold front moves through. Kept visibilities VFR with this for now, but may eventually need to add some restrictions there as well. Winds will be variable this morning, becoming southerly this afternoon...and then west to northwest tonight behind the front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/18/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ007>011-016>020- 027>031. OH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>086. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MZ

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