-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
180
FXUS61 KRLX 100653
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
253 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler weather for today into the weekend. The chance for rain
continues at times courtesy of crossing weather systems.
Temperatures will climb to average or above starting Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

A few stray showers are noted south and southeast of the
Charleston area, and a few hit-or-miss showers may continue
tonight across the mountains, but most activity has ended.
Models have hinted that some of the light shower activity noted
over north-central and NW Ohio could sneak into our northern
zones before sunrise, and this is reflected in the return of
some chance POPs, but overall no real impacts are expected.

Otherwise, more showers and perhaps a few t-storms are possible
from late morning through most of the afternoon hours. However,
the lower temps and instability expected today will likely
relegate the bulk of that activity to the higher terrain, where
the NW`ly winds will produce an upslope component for a bit of
added lift. Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure
working into the region tonight will allow for a sharp drop-off
in rain chances and some clearing skies.

If the forecast for clearing skies pans out, night owls might
be able to catch some aurora activity tonight if they head away
from city lights to somewhere with a clear view of the northern
sky. Head to the Space Weather Prediction Center`s website for
more info on the G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch: swpc.noaa.gov.

Back to terrestrial weather - Highs today are likely to be in
the 60s at lower elevations, and 50s in the mountains, a good 10
to 15 degrees cooler than Thursday. Lows tonight will range from
the mid 30s in the highest terrain to mid-40s in the Huntington
Tri-State area. With the clearing skies, sheltered valleys that
can decouple may get cooler, and we may need to add some patchy
fog to the forecast, depending on wind speeds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 AM Friday...

Starting Saturday, a clipper type system will approach from the
northwest and spread chances for showers and storms into the
area by the afternoon. The associated surface low will be
forecast to stay just north of the area and rotate toward the
east with upper level support sustaining it through the rest of
the day. The feature will likely drag a weak cold frontal
boundary through which will promote greater chances of shower
and storm activity for the late afternoon and evening. By
nightfall, the feature will likely pass east away from the area
and cut off most of the moisture flux, however a few lingering
showers in the northeast mountains are possible for Sunday
morning.

Thereafter, a surface high pressure system builds in along with
weak upper level ridging to reinforce mainly settled weather
for the rest of Sunday. More good news may come to fruition as
high pressure sustains the calm weather through most of Monday
although another system is forecast to approach the area and
promote chances for precipitation and thunderstorms by the
evening across the western flank of our CWA, spreading into the
rest of the area by late evening.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal for this period and
then starting Monday we climb back to normal or above through
the next period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 AM Friday...

The aforementioned system which would develop over the midwest
will gain momentum and start spreading chances for showers and
storms into the area directly perpendicular to us. Activity
will start off in the easter sector of the surface low and then
as the low shifts eastward it will pass directly over the area
and kick out by Wednesday morning. This track will provide
opportunities for non-diurnal thunderstorms as well until the
low exits. The lows upper level trough support will lag behind
and create some lingering precipitation opportunities well into
Wednesday until high pressure slides in from the west by
Thursday morning.

Due to the GFS and EURO being in full sync with the Canadian not
too far behind decided to accept central guidance which equated
to chances for both days in the form of shower and storm
activity. Most of the storm activity will be diurnal in nature
so limited thunderstorm potential outside of the afternoons.

Bountiful high pressure as a weak surface high and a strong upper
level ridge is forecast to build in for Thursday, but the break
will be short lived with another system forecast to originate
over Texas and will shift north and take a direct flight across
the Midwest. This will spread chance of showers and diurnal
storms Thursday evening and through Friday. At this point models
diverge greatly and felt obligated to accept a blended model
solution for the rest of this period which equated to carrying
chances for showers and diurnal storm potential through the rest
of Thursday and Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 SM Friday...

Shower activity has largely ended across the area, and the main
concern for the rest of the night into Friday morning will be
the lowering ceilings, with widespread MVFR and locally IFR
ceilings expected. Gradual improvement expected through the day
tomorrow, and skies should clear late in the TAF period for most
locations as high pressure builds into the region. A few more
thunderstorms are expected across the area late morning into the
afternoon, primarily affecting the higher terrain, with terminal
impacts most likely at EKN and BKW. Any thunderstorms could
produce localized strong turbulence. It will remain breezy from
the west and northwest through most of the period, though winds
are likely to drop off after 00z Sat.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling and visibility restrictions
may vary from forecast. Winds will fluctuate.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 05/10/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday morning w/
valley fog.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...FK