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343
FXUS61 KRLX 111718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
118 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Storms diminish this evening. Otherwise daily chances for
mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms continue as a
warm and moist airmass remains in place.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 115 PM Friday...

No significant changes to the previous forecast. Still looking at
the potential for thunderstorms again this afternoon, however,
expecting less coverage in previous days as drier air aloft may work
to limit development. Best chances for storms still look to be
across the mountainous counties today, with bulk of activity
diminishing overnight, with areas of fog developing once again.
Saturday looks to be more of the same, with more showers and storms
anticipated, particularly during peak heating hours and from passing
weak disturbances, with the bulk of activity diminishing with loss
of heating Saturday night. Overall, not much in the way of severe
risk during the period, but as usual, heavy downpours are expected
with any convection that develops.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 115 PM Friday...

Shower and storm coverage looks to increase a bit from Sunday into
Monday, as a cold front approaches the area, potentially stalling
out at least briefly somewhere in the Ohio River vicinity. Some
storms during this period could be strong to severe, with a damaging
wind threat owing to precip loading. There is also some differences
between models concerning the timing that the front will clear the
area, and drier air is able to take hold, with the potential this
may not occur until Tuesday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 115 PM Friday...

Drier weather looks to take hold for Tuesday and Wednesday, however,
can`t completely rule out isolated shower/storm activity during peak
heating hours, particularly across the mountainous counties.
Otherwise, it will continue to be hot and humid during the
period.
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&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 115 PM Friday...

Isolated showers and storms will create brief MVFR/IFR
restrictions through 00Z. After 00Z, mainly VFR with light
surface winds, however, after 06-08Z, expect patchy IFR fog or
worse in favored valleys and in spots that receive
showers/storms today. Any fog will dissipate by/after 13Z, with
a return of VFR conditions with light surface winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of and restrictions associated with fog
could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
each day through Monday. IFR fog possible during the overnights.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL