-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 200502
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1258 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through the weekend. Next system arrives Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1250 AM Friday...

A high pressure system will control the weather for today and
tonight. With some dry air mixing expected during the afternoon
hours, went on the lower side of dewpoints. Some cirrus arrives
late Friday night.

Frost/Freeze headlines will be needed again Friday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

The region becomes encompassed by surface high pressure this
weekend, helping temperatures to rebound closer to seasonable
levels for this time of year. Clear skies will trigger efficient
radiational cooling overnight Friday, which may pose a need for
frost advisories across the lowlands Saturday morning. As of the
latest forecast, Sunday morning will feature slightly warmer
temperatures that would keep the need for an advisory at bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

High pressure migrates northeastward in response to an upper
level disturbance making its way into the region from the
central Plains. Next shot at seeing more of an active weather
pattern returns Monday night into Tuesday as the low meanders
over the lower Ohio Valley and becomes ingested by a stronger
system moving down from Canada, which will ultimately push the
next cold front through the area around midweek. Chose to go
with a model blend for the end of the period due to
discrepancies with models that far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Friday...

VFR expected through the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a small chance of MVFR clouds in
the northern mountains early this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 04/20/18
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031.
OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/MC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...RPY