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627
FXUS61 KRLX 110745
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
345 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Cooler weather for the weekend. More showers and a few storms
expected again this afternoon. Warming trend in place through
Monday. Wet weather returns Monday night into Tuesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...

Key Points:

* Fog will linger an hour or two past sunrise.
* A line of showers and storms is expected late morning through
  mid-afternoon. Gusty winds and small hail are possible, but
  severe weather is not expected.

Areas of fog with visibility down to 1/2 mile or less in spots
has developed across much of WV and our VA counties, but is
patchy or not occurring across most of our OH and KY counties at
this time. Some further expansion of the fog is possible, but
high clouds moving in from ILN`s area may help stunt that
growth. Fog should break up by 8am or 9am for most of the area,
with some fair-weather cumulus possible to develop by late
morning as diurnal heating kicks into gear.

A front pushing in from the west is forecast to bring a
distinct band of showers and a few thunderstorms across the area
today. The current forecast, which didn`t change much from the
previous one, has it reaching our furthest NW counties by mid-
morning, crossing the Ohio River around noon, and reaching the
eastern mountains by mid-afternoon. Some showers may linger up
against the mountains into the early evening hours, but should
tend to dissipate in the hour or to after sunset.

Models are indicating 500-1000 J/kg of MU CAPE, a bit less than
that of ML CAPE, and a wet bulb 0C level around 7-8kft, so some
sustained convection and small hail will be possible with the
stronger cells. With some mid-level dry air and potential DCAPE
of 250-500 J/kg, some gusty winds are possible as well.
However, some very strong winds above 500mb/6km may shear off
storms that try to grow above that level, so we may be looking
at mostly low-topped convection with this line.

Winds ahead of the line and front will be SW`ly, and may get a
bit gusty this afternoon, with gusts of 15-25kts possible.
Behind the front, winds shift W`ly and remain gusty initially,
but should calm down tonight for most locations outside of the
mountains.

Much of the area will be about 5 degrees warmer than Friday, but
still a bit below normal, with lower elevation highs from the
mid-60s to around 70 degrees. A bit more mild tonight, with
forecast lows in the 40s for the lowlands, and upper 30s to
lower 40s for the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 315 AM Saturday...

Not much of note for the short-term period. Sunday brings the exodus
of rain associated with a cold front passage and high pressure
swiftly building in behind it drying us out and keeping us mostly
cloud free. Temperatures will be mild and comfortable with highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s. The mountains will see temperatures in the
50s and 60s.

Much of the same dry weather in store for Monday, though flow
shifting out of the SW will provide warmer temperatures with low 80s
possible across the lowlands.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Saturday...

An advancing disturbance over the Mississippi River Valley
moves closer Monday night, advecting some moisture out ahead of
it over our area. Showers and some thunderstorms arrive as a
result with storms looking more of a possibility Tuesday
afternoon with peak heading and forcing.

Parameters for severe storm maintenance and development are not
adequate though, instability will be limited to conditional as
thick cloud cover and highs in the 70s have CAPE less than 1,000
J/Kg. Stronger storms could be possible across the southern
portions of the forecast area, especially as the main low
pressure center passes just south of our area.

Will have to watch out for flooding issues with this system as
Tuesday and Wednesday will be wet with heavier showers about the
area; at least a marginal risk of excessive rainfall is likely
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday outside of the chance for an afternoon
shower or thunderstorm. A ridge and warming trend will be in
place Thursday ahead of another disturbance that moves in
Friday, reintroducing showers and storms as we head into the
weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 200 AM Saturday...

Fog has developed for most valley locations along and east of
I-77/US119, and is patchy west of there but gradually expanding.
However, with some high clouds moving in from the west, not sure
if the fog will quite make it to HTS. IFR or LIFR flight
conditions are expected for the areas impacted by fog. With
sunrise around 1020Z this morning, the TAFs have fog dissipating
for most by 12z or 1230z for most terminals, but some pockets
may hold on longer.

The other main aviation concern this TAF period will be for the
line of showers and a few thunderstorms that will cross the
area between late morning and late afternoon, ahead of and with
a cold front crossing the area. Some gusty winds and small hail
will be possible with this activity, and breezy SW`ly winds
ahead of the front will shift W`ly once it passes. Gusts outside
of t-storm activity could reach around 20kts at some TAF sites.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of visibility and/or ceiling restrictions
overnight with fog/stratus may vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR
VSBY is possible on Saturday with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 05/11/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...FK