Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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638 FXUS61 KRLX 211510 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1110 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through the rest of this weekend. Next system arrives Monday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Saturday... Big Bubble no trouble. Forecast on track and no changes are expected. As of 1245 AM Saturday... A high pressure system will control the weather for today and tonight. However, the right rear of an upper level jet will provide some high clouds. Looking at soundings, expect that dry air will mix to the ground during the afternoon hours. Therefore, went on the lower side of dewpoints. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM Saturday... Still looking at a warm day Sunday courtesy of light low level southeast flow developing. I do expect quite a bit of high clouds around so did not stray from warmest guidance. An upper level system will pivot through early next week with scattered showers late afternoon Monday across southern zones...and overspreading the remainder of the area Monday night. It still appears the heaviest rains will remain east of the forecast area, except along the eastern slopes where a decent easterly flow will maximize amounts. Despite the unsettled conditions, it will remain mild. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday... Multiple upper level impulses embedded within the amplifying upper trof pivot through the Ohio Valley in the extended. This will keep the threat of showers each day, particularly late Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1100 AM Saturday... VFR expected through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible Monday afternoon and Monday night under moderate rainfall. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...JS/RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JS/RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.