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638
FXUS61 KRLX 211510
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1110 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through the rest of this weekend. Next system
arrives Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 1100 AM Saturday...

Big Bubble no trouble. Forecast on track and no changes are
expected.


As of 1245 AM Saturday...

A high pressure system will control the weather for today and
tonight. However, the right rear of an upper level jet will
provide some high clouds. Looking at soundings, expect that dry
air will mix to the ground during the afternoon hours. Therefore,
went on the lower side of dewpoints.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Saturday...

Still looking at a warm day Sunday courtesy of light low level
southeast flow developing. I do expect quite a bit of high
clouds around so did not stray from warmest guidance. An upper
level system will pivot through early next week with scattered
showers late afternoon Monday across southern zones...and
overspreading the remainder of the area Monday night. It still
appears the heaviest rains will remain east of the forecast
area, except along the eastern slopes where a decent easterly
flow will maximize amounts. Despite the unsettled conditions, it
will remain mild.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...

Multiple upper level impulses embedded within the amplifying
upper trof pivot through the Ohio Valley in the extended. This
will keep the threat of showers each day, particularly late
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1100 AM Saturday...

VFR expected through the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible Monday afternoon and Monday night under
moderate rainfall.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...JS/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JS/RPY