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000
FXUS61 KRLX 072359
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
759 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers/storms through Wednesday, more likely in the afternoon
and evening hours. Flash flooding remains possible into mid week.
Drier weather is expected to return late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 730 PM Sunday...

The forecast remains on track and only had to make minor
adjustments on temperatures to better represent current
observations and trends.

As of 230 PM Sunday...

The forecast continues to reflect afternoon showers and
thunderstorms as persistent moisture pooling from Gulf and
diurnal heating work hand in hand to sprout isolated to
scattered convection. Satellite imagery at the time of writing
depicts this metamorphosis as the early afternoon cumulus field
overcomes any lingering capping inhibition to stretch vertically
to become thunderstorms. The environment remains conducive for
pulse type storms and the capability of training and
backbuilding through the course of the afternoon and evening.

Lack of steering flow aloft will translate to slowly
propagating storms this afternoon in an area that has been
inundated with convection for numerous days. Flash flood
guidance continues to depict severely compromised values in the
majority of the forecast area, particularly in spots north of
the Charleston metro. Instantaneous precipitation rates for
storms already working their way across the Ohio River Valley
have been fairly isolated with pockets of 1-1.5" per hour, with
less than that reaching the ground so far according to nearby
gages and public reports. While storms will be isolated to
scattered throughout the day, antecedent soil conditions and
potentially intensifying rainfall rates as the day wears on pose
a concern for flash flooding. With all of this in mind, will
allow the Flood Watch to run its course into late tonight when
showers and storms come to a conclusion after sunset.

The upper level pattern remains fairly unchanged for the start
of the work week, resulting in a duplicate chance for showers
and thunderstorms by the afternoon on Monday. Diurnally driven
showers and storms will then fall by the wayside heading into
Monday evening.

As has been the case the past several days, hourly temperatures
this afternoon could plummet in the event showers and storms
pass overhead. Have already seen this occur across northeast
Kentucky today where storms have slashed temperatures down by
10-15 degrees. A possible rebound may attempt in these areas
pending radar trends.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

A shortwave is expected to cross through southeastern Canada while a
surface low develops over New England. A cold front will be pulled
towards the area as the low and shortwave continue to shift
east through mid week. Showers and storms are expected to
develop during the day Tuesday as moisture increases ahead of
the front, although better activity is likely to occur as the
front slowly crosses through late Tuesday through Wednesday. A
passing shortwave may maintain activity into Wednesday night,
before helping to push the front out of the area.

Severe weather potential is expected to remain low through mid week
due to a lack of shear; however, a combination of heavy rain
and the slow movement of the front may lead to localized
flooding on Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

Seasonable temperatures are expected on Tuesday, with highs in the
mid to upper 80s across the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s in the
mountains. Cloud cover and precipitation should then result in
cooler temperatures for Wednesday, with highs topping out in the
upper 70s to low 80s for the lowlands and upper 60s to 70s in the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 240 PM Sunday...

On Thursday, an upper trough digs into the eastern US while ridging
will be present across the central and southwest portions of the
country. Unsettled conditions are expected to linger behind a mid
week cold front, maintains chances for scattered showers and
storms during the day Thursday. Models indicate a little
additional precipitation may be possible as another front
crosses through Thursday night into early Friday. Surface high
pressure and drier air are then expected to build into the area
behind the front, resulting generally drier weather from late
week into the weekend.

Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal from
Thursday into the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 750 PM Sunday...

Tonight`s forecast has wind dropping off to calm overnight with
some decent clearing taking place. This will allow for some
river vally fog to develop. However, the majority of fog will
quickly dissipate with some low to mid clouds moving in around
the early morning. Have just EKN going down to IFR VIS for
several hours although this may clear out quicker if more lower
clouds invade the area. Otherwise, besides CRW likely having
some patchy low stratus with possibly a MVFR VIS restriction
for a few hours in the morning, things will settle down for a
quiet period until Monday afternoon when diurnal convection will
take place once again for the afternoon due to fairly clear
skies and plenty of sunshine.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Any river valley fog development could
pose a small threat to VIS at other terminals if light wind
picks up slightly allowing for some patchy fog to invade.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 08/08/22
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday, and then in fog and / or stratus early
Thursday morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JZ/MEK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JZ