Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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765 FXUS61 KRLX 031850 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains dry but increasingly hot weather through the holiday weekend. A weak cold front brings back the chance for showers and thunderstorms to begin the new work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Thursday...Corrected typo A surface high over the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, will continue to build eastward, maintaining its influence over the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians through the Independence Day Holiday. This will result in generally clear sky and dry conditions through the period. A back door cold front will dissolve as it skirts or slips into northern portions of the area tonight. Still cannot rule out a rogue shower or thunderstorm popping up along the northern tier of the forecast area at the last minute today, with an agitated cumulus field already noted there early this afternoon. With the high drifting directly overhead overnight, clear sky and light wind will provide ideal conditions for radiational cooling, especially in valley locations. This will lead to the development of valley fog, which could be dense in some areas by sunrise. The high will continue drifting east, reaching the the Atlantic coast by the end of Independence Day. While the return southerly flow on its back side will begin to advect more moisture into the region from the Gulf, it will still be predominantly dry, with an afternoon cumulus field. Lows tonight will be at comfortable, near normal levels, in the low to mid 60s across the lowlands. Highs on Independence Day will top 90 degrees for much of the lowlands for the first time since the late June heat wave ended late Monday for some locations therein.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Thursday...Corrected typo The surface high will continue to move eastward into the Atlantic, with a persistent southerly flow on its backside. Low level flow will likely be light enough to allow valley fog formation again overnight Friday night, before leading to a more noticeable increase in both heat and humidity across the forecast area this Holiday weekend. While the forecast remains dry, it is not entirely out of the question the increase in heat and humidity leads to a PoP up afternoon shower or thunderstorms come Sunday, particularly over the higher terrain of the Appalachians. Nights will be increasingly muggy, with lows in the lower to mid 60s Friday night, and then up to the mid to upper 60s for Saturday night. Lowland highs will reach the mid 90s for the lowland both Saturday and Sunday. With dewpoints rising into the upper 60s come Sunday, heat indices will climb into the mid to upper 90s, especially for urban areas and lower elevations.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Thursday... The long-term period will be characterized by a transition to a more unsettled weather pattern for the new work week. The dominant high will be replaced by an approaching frontal system and low amplitude mid-level waves approaching from the west, leading to an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms. By Monday and continuing into the middle of next week, the slow-moving surface front is forecast to approach, the front eventually stall over the region. This will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms each day, with the greatest chance being during the afternoon and evening hours. With high integrated moisture content and light deep layer flow, slow-moving heavy cells may elevate the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding, depending on the exact position and movement of the front and possible smaller mesoscale features. With increased cloud cover and precipitation, high temperatures will moderate slightly, settling to the upper 80s to low 90s for the lowlands. The threat for excessive heat will diminish accordingly, but nights will be warm and muggy, with lowland lows mostly in the upper 60s and low 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday... High pressure maintains VFR conditions with a cumulus field each afternoon. Light low level flow and mainly clear sky tonight is likely to allow valley fog formation overnight. IFR fog was coded up for CRW, HTS and PKB, with VLIFR dense fog at EKN, for roughly the 08-12Z timeframe. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of overnight fog formation could vary overnight tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are forecast. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...TRM