Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231436 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1036 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and breezy today ahead of a cold front. Light rain tonight into early Wednesday. Dry and warming for the rest of the work week. Chance for weekend showers and perhaps thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Tuesday... Dry conditions will continue today before a cold front swings through overnight bringing generally light rain to the region. Total rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side, generally a tenth or two with some locally higher amounts in orographic forcing. Breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon and into early evening can be expected ahead the mentioned front, however, most locations should see a relatively brief period of lighter winds this evening with decoupling prior to FROPA Afternoon min RH values in the lower 20s, low 10hr fuel moisture values, and gusts up to 25mph has prompted the issuance of a fire danger statement for today after coordination with land management agencies. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 241 AM Tuesday... Key Points: * Cold front exits east Wednesday morning. * Dry conditions return behind the front later on Wednesday. * Frost possible Thursday morning. A cold front will push east of the eastern mountains early Wednesday. However, another upper level shortwave pushes a reinforcement front, bringing much colder and drier airmass to the area. This later feature will put an end to the lingering showers over the mountains by Wednesday evening. Despite of dry air moving in, moisture remains trap beneath the inversion, anticipating afternoon cu development about 4-5kft persisting through Wednesday afternoon. Then, skies will gradually clear up Wednesday evening. Highs remain sightly below normal for Wednesday afternoon, generally in the low to mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the upper 40s higher elevations. With cold and dry air in place, low temperatures Wednesday night may drop into the lower 30s across northern mid Ohio valley and northern WV. The combination of chilly temperatures and clearing skies, will allow for areas of frost to develop late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 241 AM Tuesday... Key Points: * Dry with warming trend Thursday and Friday * Next system arrives late Friday into the weekend. * Becoming hot during the weekend possibly reaching the lower 80s. Strong surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes, extending south into the OH valley and WV Thursday. This high will provide dry weather conditions with a warming trend through the end of the week. Precipitation returns Friday and Friday night as a warm front develops across the south, establishing southwest flow and moisture advection. Showers continues Saturday as the warm front lifts north across the area. While the area remains on the warm sector, moisture and instability builds mainly west of the area, while a series of shortwaves cross aloft. These two features will act to support the potential for thunderstorms on Saturday. A warming trend continues, becoming hot over the weekend, with lowland temperatures reaching the 80s on Saturday, and the mid 80s on Sunday. Still uncertain how the weather will evolve after the weekend with as upper level ridge axis exiting east of the area, while upper level disturbances approach from the west. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1035 AM Tuesday... VFR expected through the day before light rain and MVFR cigs accompany a crossing front this evening and overnight. Precipitation will be largely east of ports by daybreak. Southwesterly winds of 5-12KTs with gusts 15-20KTs in the afternoon and evening hours...veering to the west after FROPA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions are possible in rain showers and stratus early Wednesday morning, especially near the mountains.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...MPK

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