Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 060244 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1044 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving convection today amid building high pressure. Gradual warming trend continues into early next week with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1042 PM Thursday... With calm winds across the area and mainly clear skies, valley fog is expected to develop over the next few hours across parts of the region. Overall coverage of fog overnight should be less than last night, especially since most areas did not receive any measurable precipitation earlier today due to the very isolated nature of the activity. While recent satellite imagery shows that high clouds are approaching the area ahead of a upper trough to the west, this shouldn`t have too much of an impact on overall fog development since it should be able to develop before any thicker cloud cover moves in towards Friday morning. As of 629 PM Thursday... Convection has mostly tapered off across the region, but some isolated activity remains for now across southeast OH and over the mountains. This activity should continue to diminish as instability decreases and the upper trough aloft departs further to the east. Other than some minor tweaks to PoPs based on latest radar trends, the forecast remains on track. As of 220 PM Thursday... Diurnally driven pulse showers and storms have blossomed across areas east of the Ohio River this afternoon. Weakening upper level flow aloft in response to a departing trough will deplete the movement of convection today, but should generally propagate north/northeastward before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. Lingering moisture will prompt river valley fog Friday morning. The departure of the trough will allow for a mid to upper level ridge axis and its adjoining building heights to spread drier conditions overhead overnight into Friday. Increasing moisture return via southwesterly low level flow will promote increased cloudiness as the day wears on Friday. This low level flow regime will also advertise slightly warmer afternoon highs on Friday, with some areas in the lowlands sneaking up near 90 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thursday... Shortwave swings across the region Friday night into Saturday. Instability is not terribly high during the day Saturday with negligible shear but scattered showers and thunderstorms are a good bet, diminishing quickly Saturday evening as the shortwave pushes to our east. Temperatures on Saturday will be heavily dependent on cloud cover and precip coverage, but highs in the mid 80s are forecast for the lower elevations. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday... Models develop upper level ridging over the region early next week signaling a return to typical summer-time heat and humidity. Highs each day through the period should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations, with dewpoints rising again toward the uncomfortable 70 degree level. Theres not much to force convection besides daytime heating and topography so PoPs will be nil or low early in the week. Towards midweek, models diverge quite a bit, but in general point to a more active regime with upper level troughing setting up over our region or just to our west. This results in higher chances for showers/storms Tuesday through Thursday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 720 PM Thursday... VFR conditions will be in place area-wide this evening, but flight conditions are expected to deteriorate overnight as valley fog develops. If valley fog develops in close enough proximity to any terminals, then a prolonged period of IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible overnight. Any fog that does develop should dissipate around 12Z-13Z Friday and VFR conditions will then prevail Friday afternoon and evening as high pressure will be in control. In addition, surface winds will be out of the SW on Friday, mainly around 5 kts throughout the day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, duration, and coverage of fog overnight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 08/06/21 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L M L L L L M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M M H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR restrictions may be possible Saturday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE/MEK NEAR TERM...RG/MEK SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...RG

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