Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 072359 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 759 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Showers/storms through Wednesday, more likely in the afternoon and evening hours. Flash flooding remains possible into mid week. Drier weather is expected to return late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 730 PM Sunday... The forecast remains on track and only had to make minor adjustments on temperatures to better represent current observations and trends. As of 230 PM Sunday... The forecast continues to reflect afternoon showers and thunderstorms as persistent moisture pooling from Gulf and diurnal heating work hand in hand to sprout isolated to scattered convection. Satellite imagery at the time of writing depicts this metamorphosis as the early afternoon cumulus field overcomes any lingering capping inhibition to stretch vertically to become thunderstorms. The environment remains conducive for pulse type storms and the capability of training and backbuilding through the course of the afternoon and evening. Lack of steering flow aloft will translate to slowly propagating storms this afternoon in an area that has been inundated with convection for numerous days. Flash flood guidance continues to depict severely compromised values in the majority of the forecast area, particularly in spots north of the Charleston metro. Instantaneous precipitation rates for storms already working their way across the Ohio River Valley have been fairly isolated with pockets of 1-1.5" per hour, with less than that reaching the ground so far according to nearby gages and public reports. While storms will be isolated to scattered throughout the day, antecedent soil conditions and potentially intensifying rainfall rates as the day wears on pose a concern for flash flooding. With all of this in mind, will allow the Flood Watch to run its course into late tonight when showers and storms come to a conclusion after sunset. The upper level pattern remains fairly unchanged for the start of the work week, resulting in a duplicate chance for showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon on Monday. Diurnally driven showers and storms will then fall by the wayside heading into Monday evening. As has been the case the past several days, hourly temperatures this afternoon could plummet in the event showers and storms pass overhead. Have already seen this occur across northeast Kentucky today where storms have slashed temperatures down by 10-15 degrees. A possible rebound may attempt in these areas pending radar trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Sunday... A shortwave is expected to cross through southeastern Canada while a surface low develops over New England. A cold front will be pulled towards the area as the low and shortwave continue to shift east through mid week. Showers and storms are expected to develop during the day Tuesday as moisture increases ahead of the front, although better activity is likely to occur as the front slowly crosses through late Tuesday through Wednesday. A passing shortwave may maintain activity into Wednesday night, before helping to push the front out of the area. Severe weather potential is expected to remain low through mid week due to a lack of shear; however, a combination of heavy rain and the slow movement of the front may lead to localized flooding on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Seasonable temperatures are expected on Tuesday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s in the mountains. Cloud cover and precipitation should then result in cooler temperatures for Wednesday, with highs topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s for the lowlands and upper 60s to 70s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 240 PM Sunday... On Thursday, an upper trough digs into the eastern US while ridging will be present across the central and southwest portions of the country. Unsettled conditions are expected to linger behind a mid week cold front, maintains chances for scattered showers and storms during the day Thursday. Models indicate a little additional precipitation may be possible as another front crosses through Thursday night into early Friday. Surface high pressure and drier air are then expected to build into the area behind the front, resulting generally drier weather from late week into the weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal from Thursday into the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 750 PM Sunday... Tonight`s forecast has wind dropping off to calm overnight with some decent clearing taking place. This will allow for some river vally fog to develop. However, the majority of fog will quickly dissipate with some low to mid clouds moving in around the early morning. Have just EKN going down to IFR VIS for several hours although this may clear out quicker if more lower clouds invade the area. Otherwise, besides CRW likely having some patchy low stratus with possibly a MVFR VIS restriction for a few hours in the morning, things will settle down for a quiet period until Monday afternoon when diurnal convection will take place once again for the afternoon due to fairly clear skies and plenty of sunshine. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Any river valley fog development could pose a small threat to VIS at other terminals if light wind picks up slightly allowing for some patchy fog to invade. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/08/22 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms, especially Tuesday and Wednesday, and then in fog and / or stratus early Thursday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB NEAR TERM...JZ/MEK SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...JZ

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