Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251248 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 848 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low continues bands of showers today. Southern system may graze the area late Thursday into Friday. Cold fronts Friday night and Saturday. High pressure Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 850 AM Wednesday... No changes necessary. As of 600 AM Wednesday... Increased mention of fog up into southeast OH this morning, mainly in the river valleys. Otherwise no major changes to current forecast trends. As of 225 AM Wednesday... Upper level low and associated surface low to lift to the east across Virginia today. Baroclinic zone and associated dynamics will generally stay to our south an east. Some moisture in the form of showers and clouds should continue to rotate into the forecast area up until this system exits the east coast. Unsettled wet weather will continue with best pop potential over the eastern mountains. Overcast conditions till continue today with models hinting that a few breaks may occur over southeast Ohio late this afternoon and evening. Perhaps they will get to see some sun there, a break from the wet overcast conditions from the past few days. Used latest model blend for temps with no real adjustments or changes from previous forecast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 235 AM Wednesday... Models have trended toward last nights GFS, bringing a system late Thursday into Friday further northward into the region. The GFS tonight has trended even further northward and westward, remaining the most aggressive model for rain over the forecast area. This system will be followed by a weak cold front Friday night and a reinforcing front on Saturday. Models are in much better agreement tonight with these systems, although there remains some variation in how much precipitation the fronts can produce, if any. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... A high pressure system will build over the area Saturday night, and remain through Tuesday. Temperatures will gradual warm through the period. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 600 AM Wednesday... Morning fog has set up at KCRW and KHTS and seeing mostly stratcu across the remaining sites as upper level low rotating east and eventually off the east coast. This leading to widespread IFR and MVFR, especially invof mountainous terrain. Ceilings have dropped this morning as boundary layer decouples. Conditions will be slow to improve today. However, some breaks in clouds may reach into KPKB this evening as southeast Ohio clears. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not form overnight -- or could develop as more low stratus instead. Timing of category changes may vary through tomorrow. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L M M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L L M M H M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M H H L M M H H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M M H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H M H M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions possible into Wednesday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK NEAR TERM...KMC/SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...KMC

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