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318
FXUS61 KRLX 090006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
806 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and storms remain possible the rest of the week, mainly
during the afternoons and evenings, as a front wobbles in and
out of the region. Storms may contain locally very heavy rain.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 805 PM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms were pushing southeast of the area
early this evening. The cold front appeared to have passed PKB
at 11 AM this morning. it appeared to have passed CKB at noon
to 1 PM today, but may have retreated back north of CKB in the
past hour. The front has gone as far as it is going to this time
around.

Temperatures differences owing to wet-bulb cooling with showers
and thunderstorms across southern portions of the area will
iron out as we go through sunset. The storms appeared to have
produced rainfall in excess of one to three hour guidance in
portions of the southern coal fields late this afternoon and
early this evening.

The front will continue to push back northward tonight and
Wednesday, in response to a mid-level short wave trough and
surface low pressure center approaching from the west. Have
increased the chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon, especially south, closer to central guidance and more
in line with the Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Wednesday,
which reflects a Slight Risk for the greater southeast half of
the forecast area, and a Marginal Risk elsewhere.

With an uptick in bulk shear in response to the approaching
short wave Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms could be stronger
compared with today, and the Storm Prediction Center had
expanded the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms back across
the greater southeast half of the forecast area, where
instability is forecast to be greatest, for the Day 2 Outlook,
compared with the previous Day3.

As of 1143 AM Tuesday...

No significant changes in the near term forecast period. Frontal
boundary near Ohio River vcnty, will largely remain stationary
today, before lifting back northwards Wednesday, as low pressure
slowly nudges further north and east into the Great Lakes
region. A warm, humid, and unstable airmass continues to remain
in place, with observed PW values across most of the CWA
generally 1.5 to 1.9 inches. Showers and storms will fire again,
particularly this afternoon/evening during peak heating, and
from passing weak waves. As previous forecaster indicated,
models have trended with keeping the bulk of activity
along/south of the Ohio River/south/along front, but activity
can`t be ruled out anywhere. Although the bulk of the CWA
remains in a general thunder, an isolated strong to severe can`t
be ruled out, but an overall lack of significant shear should
keep things from becoming organized. Heavy downpours will also
be expected, and localized flooding could be an issue.

Expect areas of fog again tonight, particularly in places that
receive rain/storms today.

On Wednesday, the frontal boundary will move back north of the area.
Continued showers and storms across the region, some of which could
be strong to severe with a damaging wind potential.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM Tuesday...

Showers and storms will increase in coverage mid to late week,
as the potential exists for a surface low to move east through
the area, and a more potent upper shortwave trough affects the
area. Overall severe threat still looks to be on the low end
during this period, but plenty of instability, and a slight
uptick in shear could warrant an isolated strong to severe
storm. Heavy downpours will continue to be a threat, but storms
will have overall a little better movement than in the near term
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1145 AM Tuesday...

Weather continues to remain unsettled in the extended period with
uncertainty in details this far out. However, period looks to remain
hot and humid, with area largely in the warm sector, with showers
and storms possible from passing disturbances/heating. Continued
convection/associated cloud cover should hopefully strive to keep
temperatures and associated heat indices during the period below
advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 805 PM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms were pushing southeast of the area
early this evening, with only BKW having possible impacts in
the first hour of the forecast.

Guidance continues to suggest IFR to VLIFR fog forming at most
sites late tonight, and have largely retained the previous
forecast. Have VLIFR fog coded up for EKN, CRW and PKB, IFR fog
coded up for HTS and CKB, and MVFR mist/haze at BKW, overnight.
The fog should dissipate 11-12Z, except 12-13Z at EKN.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Wednesday
afternoon, as a front, which pushed southward into the area
earlier today, pushes back northward, in response to a mid-
level short wave trough and surface low pressure center
approaching from the west. Precipitation is most likely south,
and have coded up SHRA at BKW, although thunder is also
possible, and rain and thunder are possible elsewhere as well.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and restrictions associated
with fog and/or low stratus overnight could vary from what is
currently forecast. MVFR stratocumulus is possible Wednesday
morning. There may be more impacts from convection Wednesday
afternoon than what is currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under heavy showers
and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours, each day through the weekend. IFR fog possible during
the overnights.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM