Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231841 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 241 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving storm system approaches through tonight with rain lingering through midweek. Weak high pressure for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Monday... A low pressure system will gradually move through the area tonight and exit Wednesday night. Initial band from this low is moving though the CWA this afternoon. Winds will stay gusty through this evening and eventually die down after midnight, except on the mountain ridgetops. Will keep the wind advisory going through the evening for the southern and central mountain zones as 50-60kt low level jet maxes between 00Z-06Z tonight. Low Pressure moves across the area on Tuesday, keeping likely pops over the entire region most of the day. Temperatures stay on the warm side throughout.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Monday... Models in fairly good agreement with a slow moving upper level low slowly drifting across the area Tuesday through Wednesday, providing some rain showers. By Wednesday night however, models begin to diverge with some models pulling the system away from the area and others dropping another upper low into the region. Forecast confidence drops considerably by Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 310 AM Monday... Model discrepancies continue Thursday into Saturday as models struggle with timing and placement of energy moving through the upper level trough. By Sunday however, models begin to agree as the trough pulls off to the east and a ridge begins building over the region. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 220 PM Monday. Ceilings will lower through the day as clouds our next system approaches from the southwest. Light rain showers will continue to move through the region the rest of this afternoon and pretty much through the rest of the forecast period. Generally VFR conditions through the rest of this afternoon with brief MVFR CIGS/VSBYs in showers this evening and overnight tonight. Southeast winds 10-15kts gusting to 25 to 35kt across area this afternoon and tonight will gradually shift to a more southerly direction towards 12Z Tuesday and gradually diminish. As the low tracks over the area during the day on Tuesday, look for VFR Cigs/Vsbys to gradually become MVFR and possibly IFR in heavier showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High to Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR conditions in showers and cigs may vary over the area during the overnight and morning hours on Tuesday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR conditions possible Tuesday and Tuesday night in light to moderate rain.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ515>522. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MC NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JS

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