-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231841
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
241 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving storm system approaches through tonight with rain
lingering through midweek. Weak high pressure for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 PM Monday...

A low pressure system will gradually move through the area
tonight and exit Wednesday night. Initial band from this low is
moving though the CWA this afternoon. Winds will stay gusty
through this evening and eventually die down after midnight,
except on the mountain ridgetops. Will keep the wind advisory
going through the evening for the southern and central mountain
zones as 50-60kt low level jet maxes between 00Z-06Z tonight.

Low Pressure moves across the area on Tuesday, keeping
likely pops over the entire region most of the day. Temperatures
stay on the warm side throughout.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Monday...

Models in fairly good agreement with a slow moving upper level
low slowly drifting across the area Tuesday through Wednesday,
providing some rain showers.

By Wednesday night however, models begin to diverge with some
models pulling the system away from the area and others dropping
another upper low into the region. Forecast confidence drops
considerably by Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 AM Monday...

Model discrepancies continue Thursday into Saturday as models
struggle with timing and placement of energy moving through the
upper level trough. By Sunday however, models begin to agree as
the trough pulls off to the east and a ridge begins building
over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 220 PM Monday.

Ceilings will lower through the day as clouds our next system
approaches from the southwest. Light rain showers will continue
to move through the region the rest of this afternoon and pretty
much through the rest of the forecast period. Generally VFR
conditions through the rest of this afternoon with brief MVFR
CIGS/VSBYs in showers this evening and overnight tonight. Southeast
winds 10-15kts gusting to 25 to 35kt across area this afternoon
and tonight will gradually shift to a more southerly direction
towards 12Z Tuesday and gradually diminish.

As the low tracks over the area during the day on Tuesday, look
for VFR Cigs/Vsbys to gradually become MVFR and possibly IFR in
heavier showers.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High to Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR conditions in showers and
cigs may vary over the area during the overnight and morning hours
on Tuesday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible Tuesday and Tuesday night in light to
moderate rain.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ515>522.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MC
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JS