Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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926 FXUS61 KRLX 261828 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 228 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper trough through Sunday. Dry with high pressure for Memorial Day. Unsettled weather should return by mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 210 PM Saturday... Scattered convection developing, but has been a bit hampered over the southern mountains with the ongoing shower activity from the morning and the cloud debris associated with it. Convection should peak over the next few hours with the heating, and then wane tonight. Leaving at least slight chance POPs in during the overnight with the approaching upper trough. During the day Sunday, expect this trough to move over the mountains, and will see a significant decrease in the dewpoints aloft in the mid and upper levels, so POPs will erode from northwest to southeast. By 00Z Monday, shower chances will be confined to the mountains. No changes to the general thunder outlook from SPC for our area. Through tonight, the slight risk of excessive just brush up against our border, thanks largely to the morning shower activity that was stationary just over into the RNK/MRX territory, and marginal for the rest of our CWA. As stated many times over the last week or so, this more resembles a mid summer pattern than spring time. This includes the overnight lows which will be governed again by the high 60s dewpoints in the area lowlands.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Saturday... Models show an upper level wave in H500 vorticity charts passing slowly south Sunday night into Monday. Abundant moisture will continue over the area under generally weak flow. The combination of parameters, together with the afternoon heating will promote shower and storm development more numerous during the afternoon and evening hours. There should be a lull in pcpn activity Monday night as a drier airmass moves over. Therefore, coded chance PoPs with thunder for these conditions during the afternoon and evening hours. Went with the blend of all models for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 420 AM Saturday... Bufkit soundings show a saturated column with limited bouyancy and about 20 knots of deep layered shear for Tuesday. Kept PoPs to the extreme southern portions of our CWA for now, and dry conditions across the northern two thirds of the area. These conditions arise as a back door cold front approaches from the northeast, while the remnants of what became the sub-tropical storm Alberto begin to move north out of the Gulf of Mexico. Consistency among run-to-run model provides some confidence that if the remnants of Alberto track our way, it will spread an area of stratiform rainfall with embedded showers due to limited instability despite high moisture presence Wednesday through Thursday. Otherwise, tropical moisture could move south and east of the area. Continued with showers and storms possible Friday with an upper level system somewhere in the Great Lakes region. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 PM Saturday... Scattered convection area wide at this hour expected to continue through around 01Z Sunday, and could increase slightly in coverage. This makes the VCTS/CB near term 0-6 hour forecast the most popular bet this afternoon. Very difficult to use actual TSRA even in the near term, but is definitely a possible scenario going forward. Some modest wind gusts to 25kts possible in thunder. Will put fog in EKN tonight given the fog under BKN/OVC skies last night and in the same atmosphere. As stated yesterday, any terminals that receive rain will have to have a fog potential for the overnight reevaluated. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TSRA may be need at terminals in the next 6 hours. May need fog tonight if terminals receive rain. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/25/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...26

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