Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270553 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 153 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A southern system grazes southern and eastern portions of the area the area into Friday morning. Cold fronts cross Friday night and Saturday. High pressure Sunday into mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1035 PM Thursday... Forecast on track, as renegade echoes pushing northwestward into interior WV are eroded by low level dry air. As of 800 PM Thursday... Satellite imagery snows nice comma head cloud pattern over the area, with stacked low pressure centered just to the south. Light rain WAS over southwest VA, and the coal fields of southern WV. The forecast was on track, barring minor adjustments made here and there. As of 130 PM Thursday... An opening upper level low will pass south and east of the forecast area tonight. We are already seeing cirrus on the increase ahead of this with the first radar echos crossing eastern TN into southwestern VA. Expect precipitation to be confined to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area overnight, with the highest confidence of measurable rainfall across the mountains where a tenth to a quarter of an inch is expected. Nothing significant or concerning when it comes to flood thread. Light rain across the northern mountains should linger until just after sunrise Friday before tapering off. Another weaker upper trough crosses the Great Lakes Friday afternoon. Models keep most precipitation associated with this feature north of the forecast area, but did go with some slight chance to chance POPs across our SE Ohio and northern WV zones as both GFS and ECMWF show a decent vort max crossing this area Friday afternoon. Blended ECMWF MOS guidance into previous high and low forecasts, resulting in only a degree or two change here and there, so nothing significantly different from previous forecast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 205 PM Thursday... Unsettled weather continues in the short term period as an upper low, and several upper disturbances affect the area. Precipitation will gradually taper off late Saturday night or early Sunday, with enough cold air filtering into the region that precipitation will turn over to snow across the higher terrain. No accumulation is expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM Thursday... High pressure will build across the area Sunday. May even see areas of frost Monday morning across the area. Temperatures will gradually warm as the week progresses, as upper ridging takes hold across the area. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 153 AM Friday...A low pressure system passing south and east of the area will bring light rain from the southern coal fields northeastward, through the central Appalachians this morning. Ceilings are mainly VFR right now, however, guidance points to deteriorating flight conditions through the remainder of the pre-dawn hours at EKN and BKW as the low levels moisten up. Also, left in the IFR fog mention at PKB and MVFR mist at HTS toward dawn as mid level clouds on the back side of the system possibly thin enough to allow that to develop, per previous forecaster. Drier air moving in from the west will clear out any fog west and rain east after dawn, yielding VFR conditions for the midday and afternoon hours. An upper level trough moving into the middle Ohio Valley will help to create some afternoon instability there with a few showers possible, but kept out any mention of this in the TAFs for now with low coverage expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High except low at BKW and EKN. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions in clouds and rain may vary overnight into Friday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/27/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L M M M M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible Saturday into Saturday night following a cold frontal passage, mainly in the mountains, where snow showers are possible overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ABE/TRM

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