Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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133 FXUS61 KRLX 191453 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1053 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low with rain showers transitioning to upslope snow showers and lingering into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1050 AM Thursday... Tweaked PoP`s for the rest of today to catch precip pattern from trough aloft a little bit better with hires data. Adjusted today`s high/tomorrow`s low temperatures down a hair, especially in the Tristate, according to obs/model trends w/ greater cloud coverage today and continued NW flow. As of 610 AM Thursday... Made some minor tweaks based on current obs and trends. Forecast POPs running a bit high with radar and obs showing mainly dry conditions across forecast area right now, but precip associated with the upper low is now making its way into SE Ohio so should catch up soon. As of 305 AM Thursday... Surface low has transitioned across the forecast area, with the cold front also moving east of the forecast area. Line of post frontal showers gradually shifting east, with some gusty winds. Expect a brief break across the middle Ohio River Valley before have POPs on the increase as an upper level low moves into the region. Keep lingering showers across the eastern mountains between the two features. Cold air starting to surge in behind the front, and think mid level temperatures will be cold enough to start supporting a transition to snow across the mountains by about 12Z. Could even get some flakes across the lower elevations as the precipitation tapers off... however moisture exits pretty quickly so not expecting much more than some flurries into this afternoon across the lowlands. Generally have an inch or two of snow accumulation across the highest ridges. today into tonight. Behind the cold front, expect gusty winds to linger today. Strongest winds will be across the higher ridges, where a wind advisory is already in effect. Today will be rather chilly...especially across the eastern mountains where steady to even slowly falling temperatures are expected. Farther west, we should see some warming this afternoon but temps still expected to be 15 degrees or more below normal. Tonight should bring temperatures near or below freezing and have issued a freeze warning for the area where the growing season has been deemed active.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Thursday... Precipitation should have generally tapered off across the higher terrain by the start of the period. High pressure with dry conditions/low RH and light surface winds during the remainder of the period. Could be a need for a frost advisory at least Saturday morning under these conditions. Gradually warming as weekend progresses with upper ridging shifting east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 AM Thursday... Active weather returns for the period. A low pressure system in the southern stream will spread moisture into the area for Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation should be in the form of rain during the period. Another cold front moves through the area by mid week, with additional rounds of showers. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 610 AM Thursday... As an upper level low passes by today, expect a mix of MVFR to VFR ceilings. Some light rain showers are expected today and will taper off as snow showers across the mountains overnight. Could get brief MVFR to IFR visibilities, but with low probabilities and uncertain timing did not include any visibility restrictions for now. Winds will be gusty -- generally out of the west and northwest today into tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M M H M H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H M H M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H M M M H M H H H M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for WVZ516-518-520-522>524- 526. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>031. OH...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103- 105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...MZ/MC SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MZ

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