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000
FXUS61 KRNK 041023
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
523 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry backdoor front moves south through the area today
with breezy conditions this afternoon. High pressure system follows
from the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure moves
across the southern U.S. Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM EST Thursday...

     Breezy and dry today....

Dry backdoor front moves south today, with breezy conditions in its
wake and very low humidity. Not much moisture to work with so
keeping precip out of the forecast. Another shortwave moves to our
north tonight, but not seeing any threat of precip with it as well,
maybe a flurry near the Pocohontas border with Greenbrier.
Cloudiness will be very limited to the western slopes of WV this
morning and much of the area will see sunny skies, though some wisps
of cirrus possible. Temperatures running above the model blends, and
the MAV and MET guidance seem reasonable for today. Downsloping to
cause it to be warmer southeast of the Blue Ridge with lower to mid
60s, while the mountains stay in the 50s, still a few degrees above
normal. Northwest winds will gust 20 to 30 mph at times, especially
in the afternoon, the subside this evening. With cold air advection
and high pressure building southeast from the midwest, expect lows
in the 20s for most, with some lower 30s in the NC
foothills/piedmont.

Forecast confidence = High.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM EST Thursday...

Chilly and dry conditions will highlight this weekend.

Canadian high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes
during Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep upper level trough in
the northern stream will hover over the New England states, while
upper level ridging should ensue over the Plains. A shortwave trough
in the southern stream should dive from the central Rocky Mountains
toward the Gulf Coast on Friday and spark a low pressure system that
will cross over Florida on Saturday. All of the model guidance
agrees that the moisture from this system will stay way too far
south to affect the Mid Atlantic aside from some passing clouds on
Friday night.

The wind will remain gusty from the northwest, especially in the
afternoon with good boundary layer mixing, during Friday through
Sunday before Canadian high pressure can settle overhead by Sunday
night. The GFS and the NAM models hint at a little bit of upslope
moisture before sunrise on Saturday, but the prevailing dry air will
make it difficult to generate anything more than scattered flurries
across western Greenbrier County of West Virginia. The models
completely strike out any chance of upslope moisture afterward, so
dry weather will persist throughout this weekend. Temperatures were
leaned toward the cooler side of guidance along and west of the Blue
Ridge, but they were kept a little warmer across the Piedmont where
downsloping will take place.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 AM EST Thursday...

A significant warming trend will take place early next week.

The upper level trough in the New England states will exit on Monday
and give way to an unusually strong upper level ridge for this time
of year. This ridge will shift eastward toward the Mid Atlantic on
Tuesday and persist through Wednesday. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure should gradually drift off the East Coast, which will put
the Appalachian Mountains into a broad southwest flow. This increase
in warm air advection will start a significant warming trend. As a
result, temperatures were steered toward the warmer MEX guidance as
the other blended guidance seems way too cold and may be biased from
the colder readings in the past few weeks. Any chance of rain does
not appear until beyond this forecast period. For anyone wondering
when the first glimpses of Spring would come, it is here.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 521 AM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period.

Winds especially from late morning through afternoon are
expected to be gusty from the northwest in the 20- 25kt range,
especially west of the Blue Ridge. Winds subside Thu evening.

Forecast confidence is high.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Widespread VFR anticipated through the weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 305 AM EST Thursday...

A dry backdoor front moves through today, with breezy northwest
to north winds following this afternoon. Humidity levels will
drop to 15 to 20 percent in the NC foothills and piedmont and
and just into southern VA east of the Blue Ridge. Fuels are
starting to dry out, despite the wet pattern we have been in,
especially in NC and with gusts over 25 mph at times, could see
some see some issues with fires.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG/WP
FIRE WEATHER...WP