Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 021116 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 616 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A wave of low pressure moves east along the front to our south today bringing mainly rain to southern Virginia south into North Carolina, with a light wintry mix north into the mountains and foothills of Virgina and West Virginia. After the low moves off the southeast Atlantic Coast tonight, a dry and much colder airmass will work in from the north Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM EST Thursday... Light Wintry Mix This Morning and Rain... Radar showing precip filling in across NC/southern VA as inverted trough pushes across the southern Appalachians into the VA Blue Ridge, in concert, with pieces of shortwave energy streaming west- east across the area. Models have been consistent in having highest pops along/south of the VA/NC border, with very light precip pushing as far north as just south of I-64. Temperatures/dewpoints at or below freezing along/north of U.S. 460 and also along the Blue Ridge to about the NC/VA border. Will likely see some spotty freezing drizzle/sleet and snow which will be limited in accumulation, maybe a dusting of snow/sleet. However, do not see enough coverage and amounts to need a winter weather advisory, so will run with the special weather statement, as where the higher pops will be mainly rain today. Models have sped up the timing of the drying behind this wave later today and will trend down in pops through the evening. Any wintry mix will be gone or just limited to the NC mtns this afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be between a tenth to a quarter inch along/south of the VA/NC border to just a few hundredths north to the New River Valley/southern WV and Roanoke River. Cloud cover will hold steady today, but could see some brightening skies north of I-64 mid to late afternoon. High temps will be tricky as precip may hold it down longer, but leaned toward the NAM/MET with most in the lower to mid 40s by 4pm. Tonight, precip diminishes with gradual clearing across the western/northern CWA, but am hesitant to clear it as fast as the Canadian, as expecting a shield of high clouds in the zonal flow to move across overnight. Despite this, winds turning to the west/northwest and increasing to 10-15 mph at least in the mountains plus cold advection should send temps into the 20s by Fri morning, with lower to mid 30s east. Forecast confidence is average this period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 AM EST Thursday... Very windy Friday with cold wind chills, warmer for the weekend... On Friday an upper level trough as well as a cold front will push through the area. Behind the front, high pressure will build in for the weekend. Behind the front, a tight pressure gradient as well as vigorous mixing will yield gusty conditions. Expect with gusts to 20 to 30 mph for lower elevations, and 30 to 40 mph for the higher elevations through the day, decreasing at night as high pressure builds in more fully. Temperatures Friday will battle moderate cold air advection throughout the day, with temperatures near steady or even falling. We should reach the low 20s to around 30F for the mountains, and the mid 30s/lower 40s for the Piedmont. With the winds however, it will feel closer to 0 to 15F above in the mountains, and in the 20s to lower 30s for the Piedmont. This will also be a very dry air mass with dew points in the single to even negative digits. The only redeeming thing about Friday will be that we will finally get to see the sun. As a result of lightening winds, clear skies, and very low moisture content, overnight lows will drop into the single digits to teens across the area. Depending on how fast winds diminish at night, we may be able to avoid needing a wind chill advisory across southeastern WV Friday night, where wind chills hover near -5F. Saturday will be dry and sunny, and warmer than Friday with light southerly winds. Highs will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Clouds increase by Sunday morning as a shallow trough approaches in westerly flow aloft. The good news is the southwesterly surface winds will help boost highs into the mid 40s to low 50s. Confidence in the short term forecast is high.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 200 AM EST Thursday... Mostly sunny days and warmer... The trough moving towards the eastern U.S. and most of its energy misses us to the north Sunday night, just bringing cloud cover to the mountains. The remainder of the weekend and into early next week will be dry and partly to mostly sunny during under strong high pressure. Highs will be well above normal thanks to strong subsidence and southerly and at times westerly winds. Highs will be about 10-15 degrees below normal, and generally in the 50s to low 60s. The next chance of precipitation may come Wednesday with an approaching front. Confidence in the long term forecast is high for much of the forecast, but lower concerning precipitation chances mid week.
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&& .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 612 AM EST Thursday... Cloud bases will likely be sub 1kft for most of the morning, mainly along/south of a BLF-ROA-LYH line while LWB will drop at times to IFR. A light wintry mix of snow/sleet vsbys at times from BLF/BCB/ROA possibly LYH though main precip shield through 14z. Looking at IFR or lower BLF-ROA-LYH through midday/early afternoon, then should see ceilings improve to MVFR then VFR through early evening. Danville will be the last, and may stay MVFR til end of the taf period. Extended Aviation Outlook... Expecting VFR through Saturday. Northwest winds will be gusty Friday to 20-35kts. Models favor VFR Sunday through Tuesday as well. .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM...SH AVIATION...PM/SH/WP

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