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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 021116
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
616 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure moves east along the front to our south
today bringing mainly rain to southern Virginia south into
North Carolina, with a light wintry mix north into the mountains
and foothills of Virgina and West Virginia. After the low moves
off the southeast Atlantic Coast tonight, a dry and much colder
airmass will work in from the north Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 AM EST Thursday...

     Light Wintry Mix This Morning and Rain...

Radar showing precip filling in across NC/southern VA as inverted
trough pushes across the southern Appalachians into the VA Blue
Ridge, in concert, with pieces of shortwave energy streaming west-
east across the area. Models have been consistent in having highest
pops along/south of the VA/NC border, with very light precip pushing
as far north as just south of I-64. Temperatures/dewpoints at or
below freezing along/north of U.S. 460 and also along the Blue Ridge
to about the NC/VA border. Will likely see some spotty freezing
drizzle/sleet and snow which will be limited in accumulation, maybe
a dusting of snow/sleet. However, do not see enough coverage and
amounts to need a winter weather advisory, so will run with the
special weather statement, as where the higher pops will be mainly
rain today.

Models have sped up the timing of the drying behind this wave later
today and will trend down in pops through the evening. Any wintry
mix will be gone or just limited to the NC mtns this afternoon.

Rainfall amounts will be between a tenth to a quarter inch
along/south of the VA/NC border to just a few hundredths north to
the New River Valley/southern WV and Roanoke River.

Cloud cover will hold steady today, but could see some brightening
skies north of I-64 mid to late afternoon. High temps will be tricky
as precip may hold it down longer, but leaned toward the NAM/MET
with most in the lower to mid 40s by 4pm.

Tonight, precip diminishes with gradual clearing across the
western/northern CWA, but am hesitant to clear it as fast as the
Canadian, as expecting a shield of high clouds in the zonal flow to
move across overnight. Despite this, winds turning to the
west/northwest and increasing to 10-15 mph at least in the mountains
plus cold advection should send temps into the 20s by Fri morning,
with lower to mid 30s east.

Forecast confidence is average this period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 AM EST Thursday...

     Very windy Friday with cold wind chills, warmer for the
weekend...

On Friday an upper level trough as well as a cold front will push
through the area. Behind the front, high pressure will build in for
the weekend. Behind the front, a tight pressure gradient as well as
vigorous mixing will yield gusty conditions. Expect with gusts to 20
to 30 mph for lower elevations, and 30 to 40 mph for the higher
elevations through the day, decreasing at night as high pressure
builds in more fully.

Temperatures Friday will battle moderate cold air advection
throughout the day, with temperatures near steady or even falling.
We should reach the low 20s to around 30F for the mountains, and the
mid 30s/lower 40s for the Piedmont. With the winds however, it will
feel closer to 0 to 15F above in the mountains, and in the 20s to
lower 30s for the Piedmont. This will also be a very dry air mass
with dew points in the single to even negative digits. The only
redeeming thing about Friday will be that we will finally get to see
the sun.

As a result of lightening winds, clear skies, and very low moisture
content, overnight lows will drop into the single digits to teens
across the area. Depending on how fast winds diminish at night, we
may be able to avoid needing a wind chill advisory across
southeastern WV Friday night, where wind chills hover near -5F.

Saturday will be dry and sunny, and warmer than Friday with light
southerly winds. Highs will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Clouds
increase by Sunday morning as a shallow trough approaches in
westerly flow aloft. The good news is the southwesterly surface
winds will help boost highs into the mid 40s to low 50s.

Confidence in the short term forecast is high.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 AM EST Thursday...

     Mostly sunny days and warmer...

The trough moving towards the eastern U.S. and most of its energy
misses us to the north Sunday night, just bringing cloud cover to
the mountains. The remainder of the weekend and into early next week
will be dry and partly to mostly sunny during under strong high
pressure. Highs will be well above normal thanks to strong
subsidence and southerly and at times westerly winds. Highs will be
about 10-15 degrees below normal, and generally in the 50s to low
60s. The next chance of precipitation may come Wednesday with an
approaching front.

Confidence in the long term forecast is high for much of the
forecast, but lower concerning precipitation chances mid week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 612 AM EST Thursday...

Cloud bases will likely be sub 1kft for most of the morning,
mainly along/south of a BLF-ROA-LYH line while LWB will drop at
times to IFR.

A light wintry mix of snow/sleet vsbys at times from BLF/BCB/ROA
possibly LYH though main precip shield through 14z.

Looking at IFR or lower BLF-ROA-LYH through midday/early
afternoon, then should see ceilings improve to MVFR then VFR
through early evening. Danville will be the last, and may stay
MVFR til end of the taf period.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

Expecting VFR through Saturday. Northwest winds will be gusty
Friday to 20-35kts. Models favor VFR Sunday through Tuesday as
well.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...PM/SH/WP