Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 210533 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 133 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A southerly flow will continue to push warm and humid air into our region early this week. The nearly stationary front to our north will finally push south across our area mid to late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1140 PM EDT Saturday... Thunderstorms have dissipated across southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West Virginia. Have lowered probability of precipitation for the rest of the night. Minor changes to lows for tonight based on current conditions and the latest LAV guidance. Humid conditions will likely lead to patchy fog again tonight, especially where is rained Sunday afternoon. Conditions on Monday look to be much like Sunday, continuing with the warm and humid pattern due to tropical ridging still firmly in place. A front will be approaching the area from the Ohio Valley and will trigger a more widespread convective event. SPC day 2 outlook had the region outlooked for general thunder with a marginal risk just to the west. That being said, again the main threat would be hydrological, but with modest instabilities, can not rule out that a cell or two could become strong to severe. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Sunday... A blocking ridge centered over Bermuda stretches westward to cover portions of the southeast and Mid Atlantic states Monday night and Tuesday. This ridge is expected to sink south by Wednesday, losing its influence on the region. A weak front should move across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Over the Gulf states north into the Tennessee Valley, a weak upper level trough will continue to draw Gulf and Atlantic moisture northward into the area Wednesday. Similar to last week, tropical moisture interacting with a frontal boundary will bring numerous slow moving showers with heavy downpours Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Since the ground will remain wet and creeks, streams and rivers are elevated, there is a chance for renewed flooding by the middle of the week. Unlike last week, the threat for heavy rain will only be a day or two rather than a whole week, as the front is forecast to move into the Carolinas Wednesday night. Temperature will continue to run warmer than normal until the front moves south of the area Wednesday night. Highs Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 70s across the mountains to the lower 80s east. Wednesday`s temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Sunday... Following a frontal passage Wednesday night, high pressure will wedge south on Thursday. This wedge of high pressure should keep most of the area dry through Friday night. With a cool easterly wind, near uniform temperatures are expected Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. An upper level ridge over the southeast states will expand northward on Friday. This ridge will bring warmer temperatures into the region for the weekend. The chance for thunderstorms return to the area on Saturday as a cold front approaches the region. The better chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday and Monday as the front slowly crosses the area. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 125 AM EDT Monday... Have introduced more fog at LYH/LWB and BCB as temp/dewpoint in close to 100 percent and with mainly high clouds around and no wind, radiation fog will be likely given the higher ground moisture. Not out of the question to have dense fog at times, but will lean toward no lower than IFR at LWB with MVFR at LYH/BCB. Confidence is medium to high on fog as LYH already at 5sm at 05z. High-resolution models are developing showers/storms over the far SW VA/NW NC area by 17-18z then shifting it northward through 02z. Will not put thunder in tafs yet, except VCTS but should see some moderate showers at most sites later this afternoon, with highest confidence of this occurring along/south of a BLF-DAN line. Overall VFR cigs expected but will drop vsbys to MVFR at times with moderate showers. Looks like showers fade after 00-03z, but could linger along at LWB-LYH line after 03z. .Extended Aviation Discussion... Scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday Tuesday with another round likely Wednesday. Conditions are expected to improve later in the week.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JR/WP NEAR TERM...AMS/JR SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AL/RCS AVIATION...AMS/WP

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