Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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085 FXUS61 KRNK 241122 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 722 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move across the mid-Atlantic today, then offshore tonight into Friday but at the same time moving southeast to over portions of Virginia and North Carolina. A tropical low in the Gulf of Mexico will send moisture back our way over the holiday weekend into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Thursday... Getting a little more moisture in the form of stratocu on easterly wind as high pressure builds across the mid-Atlantic. Will bump up sky cover this morning across the foothills/Blue Ridge area north of the VA/NC border. The latest NAM and high-res solutions showing this pretty well, and mix it out somewhat by late morning. Should see less fog on account of this than previously thought. Weak trough into the NC mountains/foothills this afternoon into tonight with a southeast flow may spark a few showers or storms. Kept pops in the low chance/scattered range. High pressure will keep the rest of the area dry with lower dewpoints mainly north of a Bluefield to Danville line. Should see more clouds in the southwest this afternoon with mainly sunny skies elsewhere. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s in the NC mountains/Grayson Highlands, with upper 70s to lower 80s elsewhere, possibly mid 80s in the piedmont. Tonight, not much change from previous forecast, models hinting at the low threat of showers in the NC mountains/foothills, with a better threat of patchy fog to the northeast as maritime air continues to move in from the east/southeast. Models keeping skies fairly clear north of the NC/VA border so will see if any stratus forms, as nam forecast soundings suggest this potential along/east of the Blue Ridge. Given this, have adjusted sky cover up a little to the north but not much. Lows tonight will be in the 50s in the mountains, with upper 50s to lower 60s east. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure will remain off the Atlantic coast through the weekend as a tropical low develops over the Gulf of Mexico and moves into the southeastern US. This will bring deep tropical moisture back to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic with a steadily increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. Friday still looks to be mainly precipitation free for a good chunk of the piedmont with the best chance of convection in the mountains. By Saturday precipitable water values will be returning to the upper percentiles of climatology as some short wave energy moves up from the south. This looks to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. The tropical airmass will not be conducive for generating steep lapse rates and shear profiles are not robust so the primary threat will be hydro and will watch closely for high rainfall rates and training of storms which could produce flooding. Sunday looks to offer a similar soggy story. Temperatures will be running above normal through the period with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s west of the Blue Ridge and middle 80s to the east. Lows will be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday... Rather wet pattern looks to return through the period as tropical moisture heads back north ahead of low pressure across parts of the Gulf states and added weak upper troffiness dropping in with a surface front to the north. Pending future evolution of the tropical low to the south, appears will see deepening south/southeast flow take shape by early next week with an influx of both Gulf and Atlantic moisture around the rather large mid level circulation heading out of the Gulf. This should set the stage for at least more diurnally driven convection across the region through midweek. However decent surface high pressure building in from the north next week and potential for more organized convection to the south may tend to at least slow down northward expanse of deeper moisture which could mean less coverage at times. Thus plan to have higher chance to likely pops during heating and overall lower chances at night unless the core of the tropical juice ends up farther north/northeast. This could also mean some heavy rain producers at times given such high forecast Pwats of better than 1.5 inches. Otherwise will be turning more humid under varying degrees of clouds with highs mostly 70s mountains to low 80s east and lows mostly in the muggy 60s. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 718 AM EDT Thursday... Have a little bit of fog/low clouds in vicinity of BLF and will tempo this for until 13z. Otherwise, VFR stratocu will scatter/erode later this morning. Any convection this afternoon should stay southwest of HLX. Late tonight, may see some MVFR to IFR fog at all but ROA/BLF sites. Confidence high in cigs and winds thru the period, medium on vsbys. .Extended Aviation Discussion... VFR Friday. Tropical like moisture streams back north as a warm front moves through Saturday with a return to showers/storms and potential sub-VFR conditions and heavy rain thru the holiday weekend.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...AL/WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...AL/RCS/WP

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