Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 130013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
813 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Low pressure off the North Carolina coast will lift northeast
tonight into Tuesday. An Arctic air mass will spread toward the
region during midweek behind the departing snow storm, bringing
gusty winds, below freezing temperatures, and mountain snow
showers. Much warmer temperatures and a chance of rain will
arrive for the weekend as the upper air pattern undergoes some
significant changes.


As of 755 PM EDT Monday...

Have canceled Winter weather Advisory for Virginia counties now
that snow has ended. Winter Weather Advisory has been continued
until 10AM for North Carolina piedmont counties due to Black Ice
threat. Temperatures not expected to drop below freezing until
around 1AM but then hazard will continue into the morning travel

In North Carolina mountains, snowfall will be largely confined
to western slopes. Current Winter Weather Advisory addresses
minor snow amounts and Black Ice threat into the mourning. While
temperatures will take longer to rise above freezing on
Tuesday...indirect March sun and warm ground will liming threat
of ice after 10AM.

No change to Winter Weather Advisory for Western Greenbrier
County where the heaviest upslope snow showers will persist.
Again any melting that took place between when the stratiform
snow ended and the snow showers began will refreeze overnight.

Closed shortwave energy crossing the southern Appalachians into
tonight with deepening coastal low off Carolinas that will
track up the East Coast reaching Nova Scotia by Wednesday.

Western edge of cloud shield had advanced to around Roanoke as
of 8PM but increasing winds will limit radiation potential, even
with very new snow on the ground.


As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

A broad area of low pressure over the Great Lakes Tuesday will drift
eastward over New England by Wednesday night. This low will track to
the northeast and away from the region on Thursday. While this low
is making its journey eastward, moist northwest low level flow and a
series of short waves will bring continuous snow showers/flurries to
the mountains. For the most part, accumulating snow through the
period will be along western slopes of SE WV/SW VA where 2 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts are possible. Most of the snow
will accumulate at night as high sun angle should melt some of the
snow during the day. Accumulating snow for all the mountains from
bands/squalls will occur late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Snow amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches across SW VA to NW NC
mountains. Upslope area of western Greenbrier to Summers County WV
could see an additional 2 to 4 inches.

The snow will begin to taper off Wednesday afternoon with winds
increasing along higher elevations. Strong and gusty winds are
possible across the mountains into Thursday night. With no
significant pressure rises or strong cold air advection, no wind
headlines are expected through the period. However, wind chills
values across the mountains could drop into the single digits each
morning, teens east of the Blue Ridge. High pressure tracks along
the Gulf Thursday, edging northward into the region during
the afternoon to bring an end to the snow and wind.


As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

A mid-level disturbance will track along a cold front and over the
region Friday. At this point, temperatures look warm enough for this
to be an all rain event. This disturbance quickly moves east
followed by a cold frontal passage Friday evening. Cold high
pressure will keep the area dry through Saturday night. A warm front
aloft is expected to move over this weakening high pressure on
Sunday. A second stronger warm front will move over the region on
Monday. Both of these systems will bring light rain into the area.


As of 810 PM EDT Monday...

Western edge of large shield of clouds and precipitation was
near KROA at the 00Z/8PM start of the TAF forecast period.
Expect this back edge to move slowly east, reaching KDAN and
KLYH by 03Z/11PM with high confidence in this timing.

Upslope IFR to MVFR clouds have filled in over the central
Appalachians with snow showers along the western slopes. High
confidence of persistent snow showers at KLWB and KBLF with
occasional brief drops to MVFR or lower visibility due to
moderate to heavy snow.

Wind speeds increase from the northwest overnight as a deepening
low off the coast of North Carolina tracks northeast. Gusty
winds will continue through Tuesday afternoon.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

The western mountains will see lingering MVFR conditions with
upslope clouds and snow showers through Wednesday, with VFR
conditions east of the Blue Ridge. Conditions are expected to
improve in all areas by the weekend with a notable warming


As of 1100 AM EDT Monday...

The Mount Jefferson NWR will remain off the air until further
notice awaiting a part that was damaged during a high wind
event/power outage over a week ago. Inclement winter weather
could further delay the repair of this site until midweek.

Please seek alternate sources for your weather information, such
as adjacent NWRs (Roanoke, Hinton WV, Lynchburg, South Boston,
Johnson City TN, Beckley WV, etc.), commercial sources, and the
internet. You can always access our web page at


NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ001-
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ508.


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