Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 072330 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 730 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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Little change in the weather pattern is expected for much of the week with high pressure from the western Atlantic into the southeast United States and a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. The abundant moisture in the atmosphere will lead to high humidity and the potential for locally heavy rain.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 730 PM EDT Sunday... Confidence is high for more showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms have slowly developed this afternoon, but they are much weaker and more isolated compared to the past couple days. With not much synoptic lift to focus the convection, the severe threat appears quite low. Convection should continue for a few more hours before fading. Patchy fog will develop again by early Monday morning. It may not become as widespread compared to Sunday morning, but the best chance of fog will be along the New and Greenbrier rivers. Monday looks to be a little more active compared to today in terms of shower and thunderstorm coverage based on an approaching cold front that will enter the Great lakes by the afternoon. However, convection will still remain scattered along and west of the Blue Ridge most of the day with perhaps some isolated storms entering the Piedmont. The main concern from these storms will be heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding. Temperatures should remain near normal for this time of year with the humidity staying elevated.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 PM EDT Sunday... Shower and thunderstorm threat to persist through mid-week... Pattern remains unchanged through mid week with abundant moisture and high humidity combining with daytime heating to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Flow pattern is weak, so chance for organized deep convection is low with primary lifting mechanism being the mountains. Never the less, given the high ambient moisture and weak wind profiles, expect slow moving rain efficient thunderstorms with potential for localized excessive rainfall. In other words, flooding would be the primary threat in addition to frequent lightning with the healthier thunderstorm cores...pulse storm mode. Temperatures through mid-week are expected to favor the seasonal norms...maybe a degree or two above normal pending more sun than cloud cover. A front looks to approach late Wednesday into Thursday which may support a better chance of stronger storms during Wednesday afternoon. Attm, severe potential is too low to highlight.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 200 PM EDT Sunday... Air mass change associated with cooler and drier conditions is expected for the weekend. The upper level flow is forecast to amplify for the end of the week with a long wave trough advertised for the eastern CONUS, primarily impacting New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic, but sending a bonafide front through our area and to off the southeast Atlantic Coast. This is expected to introduce a 2 to 3 day period of northwesterly flow accompanied by lowering dewpoints...40s in the mountains to the 50s in the piedmont...a refreshing change compared to the 60/70 dewpoints from recent weeks. This would also support cooler air temperatures...especially at night. The change is expected to take place Thursday into Friday setting the stage for a nice weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 730 PM EDT Sunday... During the next couple hours, isolated showers may linger at BLF and LWB, while isolated thunderstorms will develop around BCB and ROA. LYH and DAN have the lowest chance of any convective activity this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist into tonight. By early Monday morning, some patchy fog will develop with LIFR visibilities likely at BCB and LWB. Confidence in fog is lower at the other terminals. Once the morning fog dissipates, VFR conditions should resume. Winds will turn toward the southwest by midday. More scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge. VCTS was included at all locations, but the thunder chance appears lower for LYH and DAN compared to the other sites. .Extended Aviation Discussion... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue each day through Thursday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. Some of the stronger storms could produce IFR to MVFR conditions and heavy rainfall. Patchy fog may also occur during the early morning hours due to the damp conditions. In between the storms and the fog, VFR conditions are anticipated. By Friday, drier air will arrive behind the cold front.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW/WP NEAR TERM...PW/WP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...PW/WP

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