Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 050016 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 816 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains control of the weather through Thursday with warm daytime temperatures and no rain. A moderately strong cold front will cross the southern Appalachians Friday, bringing a chance of showers through Saturday. Cooler and drier air filters in behind the front for the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Fog possible Thursday morning. 1. Fair weather continues through Thursday. Satellite showed a scattered cumulus field before sunset, indicating the ridge is still very much overhead. Temperatures will fall quickly with little cloud cover to prevent radiative cooling. Only small tweaks to temperature forecast to adjust for observed temps. From the previous discussion... Surface and mid level ridging centered over coastal VA and MD continued to impact our area, with the realm of high pressure reaching as far west as the OH and TN Valleys. This was bringing dry and warm conditions to the area along with light winds. Fair weather cumulus had formed, especially over the higher terrain, and these will gradually diminish this evening after sunset. Other cloud cover associated with our next weather maker was still located over AR and MO. Some of this cloudiness will reach us overnight and into Thursday. Ensemble based temperature anomalies were most pronounced well NE of us, towards the center of the surface high, but we are seeing the effects as well with highs today already in the 70s to near 80F. Tonight, overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. With low level moisture around, expect patchy dense fog to develop once again in the mountain and river valleys. On Thursday, we should see increasing clouds and dew points as southeasterly winds bring in additional moisture. This is in advance of low pressure system approaching from the west. Any showers will continue to hold off until Friday, however. Ensemble guidance supports highs Thursday a touch lower than today due to cloud cover. Confidence in the near term forecast is high.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: -A frontal passage will bring a chance of rain and breezy conditions this weekend. A cold front will slide across the region Friday night into Saturday. Rain is expected to start in the mountains between midnight and sunrise Saturday. Showers move east of the Blue Ridge in the morning, exiting the piedmont before sunset. Rainfall amounts will generally be a tenth of an inch or less for most. A quarter of an inch of rain is possible along the western slopes. Breezy conditions are expected behind the cold front for Saturday and into Saturday night. Pressure rises are not expected to be all that impressive, but should see decent cold air advection and 850mb winds at 30kts-40kts which should at least bring gusts in the 20mph range with some 30mph gusts in the higher elevations. High temperatures will warm into the 70s on Friday, but fall to around 10F-15F colder than normal over the weekend. Temperatures cold enough for the first frost of the season Sunday morning. However, breezy condition will limit coverage to deep sheltered valleys. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Potentially some patchy frost to start the week. 2. Dry high pressure returns. Broad trough remains over the eastern United States on Sunday with northwest flow aloft continuing over the area. Should still have breezy conditions on Sunday, but will begin to see winds taper on Sunday night as the pressure gradient weakens. Best chance at any frost will be on Monday morning with low temperatures in the 30s in the mountains. A few spots may dip to around freezing. Winds may still be high enough to prevent widespread frost, so for now only some patchy frost in sheltered valleys is possible. Sunday also looks to be one of the cooler days we have seen since Spring with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s in the mountains and upper 50s/low 60s in the east. The chilly temperatures combined with breezy conditions may even produce some sub-freezing wind chills early Sunday and Monday mornings. Dry weather is expected for Sunday through mid-week, with only a very isolated chance at a mountain shower along the far western slopes. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 155 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions through Thursday with an increase in mid and high clouds over the next 24 hours. Winds will be out of the east/southeast between 5-10 kts. With little cloud cover to speak of currently, expecting valley fog formation in the morning to lower vsby under 1SM in localized patches. LWB/BCB most likely to be impacted for a few hours Thursday morning. High confidence for general weather EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Next chance for precipitation with sub-VFR conditions along with showers arrives Friday into Saturday. Showers and MVFR upslope clouds will linger in the mountains for a few additional hours Saturday. VFR conditions are expected Sunday through Monday.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH NEAR TERM...SH/VFJ SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...SH/VFJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.