-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 050016
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
816 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure maintains control of the weather through Thursday
with warm daytime temperatures and no rain. A moderately strong
cold front will cross the southern Appalachians Friday, bringing
a chance of showers through Saturday. Cooler and drier air
filters in behind the front for the weekend into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Fog possible Thursday morning.

1. Fair weather continues through Thursday.

Satellite showed a scattered cumulus field before sunset,
indicating the ridge is still very much overhead. Temperatures
will fall quickly with little cloud cover to prevent radiative
cooling. Only small tweaks to temperature forecast to adjust for
observed temps.

From the previous discussion...

Surface and mid level ridging centered over coastal VA and MD
continued to impact our area, with the realm of high pressure
reaching as far west as the OH and TN Valleys. This was bringing
dry and warm conditions to the area along with light winds.
Fair weather cumulus had formed, especially over the higher
terrain, and these will gradually diminish this evening after
sunset. Other cloud cover associated with our next weather maker
was still located over AR and MO. Some of this cloudiness will
reach us overnight and into Thursday. Ensemble based temperature
anomalies were most pronounced well NE of us, towards the center
of the surface high, but we are seeing the effects as well with
highs today already in the 70s to near 80F.

Tonight, overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
With low level moisture around, expect patchy dense fog to
develop once again in the mountain and river valleys. On
Thursday, we should see increasing clouds and dew points as
southeasterly winds bring in additional moisture. This is in
advance of low pressure system approaching from the west. Any
showers will continue to hold off until Friday, however.
Ensemble guidance supports highs Thursday a touch lower than
today due to cloud cover.

Confidence in the near term forecast is high.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

-A frontal passage will bring a chance of rain and breezy
 conditions this weekend.

A cold front will slide across the region Friday night into
Saturday. Rain is expected to start in the mountains between
midnight and sunrise Saturday. Showers move east of the Blue
Ridge in the morning, exiting the piedmont before sunset.
Rainfall amounts will generally be a tenth of an inch or less
for most. A quarter of an inch of rain is possible along the
western slopes.

Breezy conditions are expected behind the cold front for
Saturday and into Saturday night. Pressure rises are not
expected to be all that impressive, but should see decent cold
air advection and 850mb winds at 30kts-40kts which should at
least bring gusts in the 20mph range with some 30mph gusts in
the higher elevations.

High temperatures will warm into the 70s on Friday, but fall to
around 10F-15F colder than normal over the weekend. Temperatures
cold enough for the first frost of the season Sunday morning.
However, breezy condition will limit coverage to deep sheltered
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Potentially some patchy frost to start the week.

2. Dry high pressure returns.

Broad trough remains over the eastern United States on Sunday with
northwest flow aloft continuing over the area. Should still have
breezy conditions on Sunday, but will begin to see winds taper on
Sunday night as the pressure gradient weakens.

Best chance at any frost will be on Monday morning with low
temperatures in the 30s in the mountains. A few spots may dip to
around freezing. Winds may still be high enough to prevent
widespread frost, so for now only some patchy frost in sheltered
valleys is possible.

Sunday also looks to be one of the cooler days we have seen since
Spring with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s in the mountains and
upper 50s/low 60s in the east. The chilly temperatures combined with
breezy conditions may even produce some sub-freezing wind chills
early Sunday and Monday mornings.

Dry weather is expected for Sunday through mid-week, with only a
very isolated chance at a mountain shower along the far western
slopes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 155 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions through Thursday with an increase in mid and high
clouds over the next 24 hours. Winds will be out of the
east/southeast between 5-10 kts. With little cloud cover to
speak of currently, expecting valley fog formation in the
morning to lower vsby under 1SM in localized patches. LWB/BCB
most likely to be impacted for a few hours Thursday morning.

High confidence for general weather


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Next chance for precipitation with sub-VFR conditions along
with showers arrives Friday into Saturday. Showers and MVFR
upslope clouds will linger in the mountains for a few additional
hours Saturday. VFR conditions are expected Sunday through
Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH/VFJ
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH/VFJ