Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FNUS71 KRNK 051045 FWSRNK Spot Forecast for Brushy Ridge Rx...USFS National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 545 AM EST Sun Dec 5 2021 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EST on December 05. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Dry, but cooler conditions expected today with high pressure still in control. Afternoon high temperatures expected to be around 45F with min RH bottoming out around 45 to 50 percent by mid-afternoon. Winds today will be out of the southeast in the 5 to 10mph range with a few higher gusts possible. A cold front arrives on Monday bringing a chance of showers and gusty NW winds increase behind the front Monday evening. Gusty winds and colder temperatures expected for Tuesday. .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent. Max temperature.....Around 46. Min humidity........45 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL. Mixing winds........East 5 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast 5 to 9 mph late in the morning. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1100 mph-ft) early in the morning increasing to fair (14100 mph-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............3. ADI.................7 increasing to 17 in the late morning and early afternoon, then decreasing to 11 late in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........50 52 44 43 31 31 20 24 28 18 13 23 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............39 39 38 40 41 43 44 45 45 45 45 44 RH..............67 65 68 64 62 57 54 52 50 47 45 50 20 FT wind dir..E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT wind spd..4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT wind gust.7 8 9 10 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 Mixng wind dir..E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE Mixng wind spd..5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 6 5 6 LVORI...........3 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ADI.............5 5 5 9 15 18 20 21 17 13 10 11 Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 VRate mph-ft/1K.1 1 4 8 12 14 16 16 13 10 8 9 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent. Min temperature.....Around 41. Max humidity........86 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph shifting to the southwest around 7 mph after 3 am. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL. Mixing winds........South 7 to 8 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3400 mph-ft). LVORI...............3. ADI.................4. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........23 32 45 47 46 57 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 10 Temp............42 44 44 43 43 42 RH..............52 44 49 57 67 75 20 ft wind......SE 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 SW 7 20 ft wind gust.12 12 10 12 13 15 Mix hgt (ft)....1500 1400 1400 1000 900 800 Mixing wind......SE 7 SE 8 S 7 S 7 S 8 S 8 LVORI...........2 2 2 3 3 3 ADI.............3 4 3 3 3 4 Haines index....2 2 2 3 3 3 VRate mph-ft/1K.10 11 10 7 7 6 .MONDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 30 percent early in the morning, then increasing to 60 percent early in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 64. Min humidity........65 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the west 7 to 8 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL. Mixing winds........Southwest 3 to 12 mph increasing to 15 to 22 mph late in the morning. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 mph-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (30300 mph-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............4. ADI.................6 increasing to 36. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........50 63 72 82 84 78 Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CWR.............10 30 40 60 50 30 Temp............42 45 52 59 60 55 RH..............86 81 74 64 64 73 20 ft wind......SW 8 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 W 7 20 ft wind gust.17 10 14 16 15 17 Mix hgt (ft)....400 400 800 1100 1400 1500 Mixing wind......SW 5 SW 6 SW 12 SW 17 SW 20 SW 21 LVORI...........5 5 4 3 3 3 ADI.............3 6 13 24 31 34 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 VRate mph-ft/1K.2 2 9 20 28 31 $$ Forecaster...Gruver Requested by...Frank Simmons Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2121975.0/RNK .DELDT 12/05/21 .FormatterVersion 1.0.26

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