Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000 FXUS63 KSGF 042303 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 503 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 ...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Forecast remains on track for the remainder of today. Plenty of sunshine and the presence of a mid-level shortwave ridge has pushed early afternoon temperatures into in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Temperatures will continue to climb a couple more degrees this afternoon, with highs topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s. A dry airmass in place will keep minimum RH values in the 20s for the remainder of the afternoon. Conditions remain dry through the evening, with cloud cover spreading across the CWA from SW to NE ahead of an upper-level low diving across the southern Plains. The low looks to remain southwest of our area tonight into Friday, with Hi-Res models confining the rain chances to our southeast Kansas and far southwestern Missouri counties. Regardless, the limited moisture with this system will keep rain accumulations limited to a few hundredths to less than one tenth of an inch. Most locations east of Highway 65 likely won`t see any rainfall. Highs on Friday will be cooler given the rain and cloud cover, ranging from the low to mid 50s area-wide. Lows Friday night will be in the low to mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Another prolonged spell of dry and mild weather will return for this weekend into early next week as an upper-level ridge builds into the Plains and Midwest. Didn`t stray much from the NMB blended guidance for highs through the extended forecast with highs gradually warming from the upper 50s on Saturday to upper 60s by Tuesday. Ensemble guidance and WPC Cluster Prototypes point to a more active period of weather for mid to late next week. Still some uncertainty in the timing and position of the upper level pattern and forcing, but there is general agreement in precipitation potential starting sometime on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday, though exact amounts are still in question. Enough instability may also be present to produce some thunder. Gusty winds may also be of concern on Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of the mid to late week systems next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 503 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Expect VFR conditions through much of the TAF period despite a weak system moving into the region tonight. This system will bring chances for light rain and cloud cover to the area. Chances for rain will increase through the early morning hours as the system approaches from the southwest. Overcast skies of 5000 feet will keep conditions VFR, with a few instances of MVFR possible in showers. Meanwhile, winds will be light through tonight from the east/southeast. Winds could gust up to 20 mph at KSGF on Friday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rothstein LONG TERM...Rothstein AVIATION...Perez

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