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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KSGF 042303
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
503 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

Forecast remains on track for the remainder of today. Plenty of
sunshine and the presence of a mid-level shortwave ridge has
pushed early afternoon temperatures into in the mid 60s to around
70 degrees. Temperatures will continue to climb a couple more
degrees this afternoon, with highs topping out in the upper 60s to
low 70s. A dry airmass in place will keep minimum RH values in
the 20s for the remainder of the afternoon.

Conditions remain dry through the evening, with cloud cover
spreading across the CWA from SW to NE ahead of an upper-level
low diving across the southern Plains. The low looks to remain
southwest of our area tonight into Friday, with Hi-Res models
confining the rain chances to our southeast Kansas and far
southwestern Missouri counties. Regardless, the limited moisture
with this system will keep rain accumulations limited to a few
hundredths to less than one tenth of an inch. Most locations east
of Highway 65 likely won`t see any rainfall.

Highs on Friday will be cooler given the rain and cloud cover,
ranging from the low to mid 50s area-wide. Lows Friday night will
be in the low to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

Another prolonged spell of dry and mild weather will return for
this weekend into early next week as an upper-level ridge builds
into the Plains and Midwest. Didn`t stray much from the NMB
blended guidance for highs through the extended forecast with
highs gradually warming from the upper 50s on Saturday to upper
60s by Tuesday.

Ensemble guidance and WPC Cluster Prototypes point to a more
active period of weather for mid to late next week. Still some
uncertainty in the timing and position of the upper level pattern
and forcing, but there is general agreement in precipitation
potential starting sometime on Wednesday and continuing into
Thursday, though exact amounts are still in question. Enough
instability may also be present to produce some thunder. Gusty
winds may also be of concern on Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of the mid
to late week systems next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 503 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

Expect VFR conditions through much of the TAF period despite a
weak system moving into the region tonight. This system will bring
chances for light rain and cloud cover to the area. Chances for
rain will increase through the early morning hours as the system
approaches from the southwest. Overcast skies of 5000 feet will
keep conditions VFR, with a few instances of MVFR possible in
showers. Meanwhile, winds will be light through tonight from the
east/southeast. Winds could gust up to 20 mph at KSGF on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rothstein
LONG TERM...Rothstein
AVIATION...Perez