444
FXUS63 KSGF 121944
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
244 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and t-storms (non-severe) this evening with
  increasing coverage and thunder overnight.  into Monday
  morning.

- Rain all day Monday; precipitation ending west to east
  beginning Tuesday morning.

- Additional precipitation possible late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A low pressure system slowly moving toward the has resulted in
a few showers popping up nearby this afternoon. Coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase through
tonight, but no severe thunderstorms are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The low will continue to move through the region Monday before
moving out on Tuesday. Coverage of showers and storms will be
greatest late tonight into Monday night. In the warm sector
ahead of the low on Monday afternoon/evening, we could see a
few strong to severe thunderstorms over the southern CWA as
models are now showing SBCAPE values up to 1,000-1,500 J/kg and
0-6km shear of 30-40 kts. Overall, expect organization to be
limited, which should limit severe threats to hail up to 1 inch
in diameter and gusts less than 60 mph.

Localized flooding is also possible on Monday, mainly due to
increased soil moisture from recent rainfall events. Overall
expect 0.5-1.5" across much of the area, but CAMs are showing
potential for locally higher amounts of 2-3 inches.

Precip will decrease in coverage during the day Tuesday, ending
from west to east.

Tuesday night and Wednesday will be dry for the most part, then
models show another round of upper level energy bringing rain
chances Wednesday night into Saturday. There is a high level of
variability in guidance, which lowers confidence, but the best
chances for rain are during the day Thursday at 50-70%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Isolated showers and perhaps some thunder will be possible this
afternoon and evening, then will increase in coverage tonight
into Monday. Monday will see greatest coverage and
chances, but will not be an all day washout at any one TAF
site. Shower and storm chances continue Monday night into
Tuesday, but with decreasing coverage and chances with time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus