


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
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Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --428 FXUS66 KSGX 142058 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 158 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will weaken for tomorrow into Wednesday with high temperatures as much as 8 to 12 degrees below average for the valleys. For Thursday and Friday, a weak upper level low pressure from the south will bring an increase in monsoonal moisture with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly for the mountains and high desert with the greater chances on Friday. Chances will slowly decrease during next weekend as the monsoonal moisture slowly decreases. Night and morning coastal low clouds will spread into the western valleys late each night.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Tonight through Wednesday... High pressure conditions continue to dominate the region with a ridge in place, although there more influence now from the troughing upstream which has allowed for a cooldown to begin today that will continue into Wednesday, with temperatures gradually dropping off and becoming 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the seasonal average for this time of year within the inland valleys and the onshore flow becomes more enhanced. For the high deserts and the lower deserts which are prone to gap flow winds, during the afternoon winds will begin to increase and become gusty during the afternoon hours, although should remain below the threshold of wind advisory criteria. By Wednesday, highs will only make it into the low to mid 80s for most locations within the Imperial Empire (IE). The marine layer will also continue to slightly lift and thicken up for the overnight hours during this period in the forecast, with a very slight chance of there being some very light drizzle, especially for the inland areas during the early morning hours. There could also be some patchy fog as well within some of the wind-sheltered inland areas. Thursday through early next week... A weak upper level low south of the region will begin to slide more to the north on Thursday. In the meantime, there will be an area of high pressure centered over Arizona. This will allow for mid to upper level winds to turn more southeasterly and result in come of the subtropical monsoonal moisture from Mexico to be advected up over SOCAL along with some weak upper level disturbances will allow for a chance of thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts beginning on Thursday. There could be a hindrance to thunderstorm development on Thursday though, depending on how much mid-level cloud coverage moves over during the morning hours, which might help to keep things a slight bit more stable. By Friday, there will be more moisture advected up over the area and further north, although the mid-level flow will still be very weak out of the southeast at the 700 mb level. This is alluding to there being the best chance of thunderstorms on this day during the afternoon hours. In addition, given the weak mid-level flow, some of these storms may become stationary (or nearly stationary), which may lead to potential flash flooding issues, especially if one of these storms becomes situated right over a burn scar area. By Saturday, the U/L low is going to begin to propagate further towards the northeast and draw some of the moisture further towards the east in the process. The ridge is also going to slightly build into the weekend. As the U/L continues to move out of the region and the mid level flow turns back to being more out of the southwest, that will help to suppress thunderstorm development as drier air aloft replaces the more moist and unstable southeasterly flow, allowing for a lessening of probability of storms over the mountains and deserts for both days, especially Sunday. The drying and slight warming trend will continue into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --142030Z....Coast/Valleys...This morning`s clouds scattered to the coast by 17-18z, but they have been pretty stubborn to fully clear, with cloud cover lingering along the coasts and only a couple of miles inland. These clouds (based at around 1200-1500) look to hang around through the afternoon, with SCT-BKN CIGs possible for KSAN, KCRQ, and KSNA. By 00-03z, clouds will surge back inland, with about 20 miles of inland extent by 06-09z Tuesday. KONT has a 65-75% chance of CIGs between 11-16z Tuesday morning with a 25-35% chance for KSBD, though localized VIS reductions to 4-6 SM in BR/HZ possible in the Inland Empire and other inland valleys. Clouds scattering back to the coast 16-18z Tuesday morning, but as what has occurred today, beaches and immediate coasts could see clouds linger into the afternoon. Mountains/Deserts...FEW-SCT shallow Cu possible at 10-12 kft AGL over the mountain ridges this afternoon. Otherwise clear skies with unrestricted VIS through Tuesday afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --No hazardous marine conditions expected through Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Stewey AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan