Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000 FXUS66 KSGX 041113 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 313 AM PST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring drier weather with a warming trend through Friday. A low pressure system moving inland through California on Saturday will strengthen onshore flow with cooling and gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts. weaker winds with slight warming on Sunday For Monday through Wednesday, a low pressure system over the eastern Pacific will move slowly toward the West Coast. This will bring chances for precipitation as early as Monday night and continuing through Wednesday. Stronger onshore flow will also bring periods of stronger and gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... Radar shows a few light showers continuing early this morning over portions of San Diego County and the adjacent coastal waters. These showers should mostly end by around sunrise. It will then be dry with a warming trend through Friday. High temperatures will go from well below average on Wednesday to a few degrees below average today and 5 to locally 10 degrees above average on Friday. A trough of low pressure moving inland through California on Friday night and Saturday will bring stronger onshore flow with cooling and with stronger and gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts. There may be some return of coastal low clouds for Friday night into Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)... Onshore flow will weaken on Sunday with slight warming and with weaker winds in the mountains and deserts. For Monday through Wednesday, a low pressure system over the eastern Pacific will move slowly toward the West Coast. This will maintain onshore flow with greater cooling on Monday and continued slow cooling for Tuesday and Wednesday. There are small chances for mostly light precipitation as early as Monday night continuing into Tuesday. NBM PQPF has some possibility for something more than light amounts on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensemble support for measurable precipitation is greatest on Wednesday and the cluster on Wednesday with the greatest support for greater than light amounts has the support of the greatest number of ensemble members with more than one-third each from the Canadian, GFS, and ECMWF models. Aside from that cluster, the greater amounts are mostly to the north. && .AVIATION... 041030Z...SCT-BKN clouds with bases 2500-3500 feet MSL will continue west of the mountains, BKN clouds more likely in San Diego County this morning. Scatter out in all areas after 16Z, with scattered low clouds to continue through the day in foothills. Mostly clear after 01Z. && .MARINE... Northwest winds could occasionally gust above 20 knots in the outer waters during afternoons and evenings Friday through Monday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...MM

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