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957
FXUS66 KSGX 052045
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
145 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Cool temperatures and passing clouds are expected today. Strong
winds over the mountains and deserts will continue through this
evening. Dry weather with slow warming will prevail through
midweek, with little day-to-day change Thursday into next weekend.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A 543 DM low is progressing into the Great Basin today and a
shortwave is rounding the base of the trough over the Mojave
Desert. Showers have diminished and pockets of shallow cumulus
clouds are left in the wake of a cold front that moved through the
region early this morning. Strong west to northwest winds will
continue this afternoon over the mountains and along the desert
slopes, with peak wind gusts up to 55 mph. Winds will diminish
tonight as the parent low moves quickly eastward.

Today will be the coolest day of the week for most areas, with
highs topping out 3-6 degrees below normal across the coast and
western valleys, and 10-20 degrees below for the foothills,
mountains and deserts. Highs will reach the 60s for the coastal
areas and valleys, 40s in the mountains, upper-50s to low-60s in
the High Desert, and mid to upper-70s in the lower deserts.

Southern California will remain under weak cyclonic flow through
at least Wednesday as a ridge builds near the Pacific Northwest
and a strong upper low is centered over the central US. Much
warmer temperatures are expected on Monday, with more gradual
warming occurring on Tuesday and Wednesday. Breezy onshore west to
northwest winds will develop each afternoon and evening over the
mountains and deserts, with peak gusts approaching 40 mph.

For the second half of the week, ensemble guidance is pointing
towards a positively-tilted shortwave breaking off from the parent
low over the central US, and retrograding towards the Desert
Southwest. A period of offshore winds are expected on Wednesday as
this low strengthens, but will turn predominantly back onshore for
Thursday and Friday as the low becomes centered near the Four
Corners region. Otherwise, little day-to-day change is expected
temperature wise Wednesday through Friday, with highs remaining
within a few degrees of seasonal averages. Marine layer low
clouds will continue for the coastal areas and portions of the
valleys each night and morning, potentially deepening and
spreading further inland by next weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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051930Z...Coasts/Valleys/Foothills...FEW-SCT clouds, locally BKN-OVC
with bases 3000-4000 FT MSL continue through this afternoon and
early evening. Skies clearing generally between 06-09z tonight. Some
patchy low clouds possible overnight but CIGs are unlikely. W-NW
winds remain elevated this afternoon, with peak wind gusts of 25-30
kts possible along the immediate coast.

Mountains/Deserts...Expect another round of strong W-SW winds 20-35
kt with gusts of 45-60 kt this afternoon. Areas of MOD-STG
up/downdrafts and LLWS over/east of mtns. SCT-BKN clouds at/abv
10000 ft MSL through this evening.
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&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds gusting 25 to 30 knots will continue through this
evening, which will generate hazardous boating conditions,
especially in the outer waters. Northwest winds gusting up to 20
knots will be possible over the outer waters each afternoon and
evening for Monday through the middle of next week.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San
     Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 30 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Waters from San
     Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out
     including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...EA
AVIATION/MARINE...Adams