Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FXUS66 KSGX 132141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
241 PM PDT Tue Mar 13 2018


Light rain will begin spreading southward into Orange and
southwestern San Bernardino Counties this evening, and then across
western Riverside and San Diego and Counties tonight, with light
rain showers tapering off Wednesday morning. Another round of
precipitation is expected for late Wednesday night into
Thursday...and a third round for late Friday night into Saturday.
Snow levels will gradually lower from above 8000 feet
6000 feet Wednesday...5000 to 5500 feet Thursday...and 4500 to
5000 feet Saturday. There are lesser chances for any precipitation
for Sunday and Monday. Yet another storm system may bring
unsettled weather again around Tuesday and Wednesday next week.


Rain showers over the LA Basin and now developing over Orange
County and SB County. Light rain will transition south this
evening and should affect most areas by 10 pm. Most areas will see
light amounts of one-quarter inch or less, with isolated higher
amounts along the slopes. Rain will gradually taper off Wednesday
morning. Snow levels will be very high with this one, 7000 to 8000

The rest of the day Wednesday should be mainly dry although moist
swly flow will continue to bring times of thick high clouds.

Another weak wave comes through late Wednesday night through
Thursday with another period of mainly light rain. This event
should be a little higher in terms of QPF with a little better
moisture plume and slightly closer proximity to upper trough.
Still not a dousy but a widespread mainly light rain with QPF 1/4
to 1/2 coast and valleys and 1-2" over the mountains. Low chance
pops continue in the forecast through Thursday night under a moist
sw flow but low confidence in any significant precip during this

The third system is still slated for late Friday night however the
models continue to trend weaker with this. The parent upper low is
quite cold (prog h5 as low as 530 dm) however by Friday night and
Saturday the low begins to fill in, and ends up passing too far
north to bring more intense weather. Therefore precip amounts have
trended down a bit for Saturday, and snow levels not quite as low
as previous forecasts. Any precip should taper off Saturday
morning with drying conditions by Saturday afternoon.

Longer term models continue to impact yet another storm system
(#4) for mid next week but very low confidence on those sensible
weather parameters at this time, with some scenarios cutting off a
low off the coast of SoCal, making for another problematic
forecast period.


132100Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN clouds with bases 8000-12000
feet MSL will continue today. Low clouds will return after 02Z
with variable bases 1200-4000 feet MSL and showers developing.

Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN clouds with bases 8000-12000 feet MSL
and unrestricted vis will continue through tonight. Showers will
develop in the mountains this evening with areas of mountain
obscurations in clouds and fog.


Isolated to scattered showers through the end of the week,
otherwise no hazardous marine weather is expected through
Saturday. Winds could approach advisory criteria this weekend.


Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
 encouraged to report significant weather conditions.




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