Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000 FXUS64 KSHV 041053 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 453 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 .AVIATION... Clear skies currently prevailing across our entire airspace attm. That will be changing as we go through the day as we will begin to see mid and high level cloud cover increase from the west in advance of an upper level storm system that will bring some showers with it after midnight tonight. Low level moisture should remain just west of our airspace through this 24hr TAF period but expect ceilings ranging from 150-200kft across most all terminals later this afternoon through the evening and overnight hours. Look for southeast winds today near or less than 10kts with those same conditions overnight tonight. Did not include any WX with this terminal package but there could be some elevated precipitation in and/or near the TXK terminal towards sunrise Friday Morning. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/ SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday/ Clear and cool attm but not as cool as Wednesday Morning as temperatures are all above freezing attm. Also, not dealing with patchy fog or freezing fog this morning even through I would not be surprised to see a few locations across NE LA lose a little visibility before sunrise. Sfc ridge axis extends from Northern MS thru NE LA into SE TX early this morning and this feature will very slow shift eastward during the day. This will allow for a returning southeasterly wind component today which always result in a very rapid temperature rise given the relatively dry airmass in place. Having said that, another day of going well above guidance in the temperature department with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 70s areawide. Upper ridging to move ovhd today from the west as an upper trough in the wake of the ridge, moves out of the Intermountain West and into the Great Plains this evening into the overnight hours. Should begin to see increasing high clouds during the day today from the northwest. Low level moisture is virtually non-existent however, at least not until Friday but upper forcing should become sufficient enough to support chance pops across our northwest half late tonight but we will need to try to saturate the atmosphere from the top down to get this precipitation to reach the ground. With the increasing mid and high level cloud cover, this should help to hold temperatures up somewhat tonight with lows ranging from the middle 40s east to near 50 west. Low levels should become more saturated during the day Friday, at least across the western half of the Four State Region with our upper trough beginning to open up somewhat as it moves out of the Upper Red River Basin Friday Morning and towards the Tenn and Lower Miss Valley Friday Night. While the passage of a backdoor cold front should hold off until making its appearance in our region until Friday Night, abundant cloud cover and high chance pops should result in slightly tempered temperatures on Friday with highs ranging through the 60s areawide. Not expecting much in the way of sfc based instability on Friday but mid-level lapse rates support isolated thunderstorms with this convection on Friday. 13 LONG TERM.../Friday night through Wednesday night/ The last of the light rain will be ending early in the evening hours of Friday night with skies clearing out overnight and lows ranging in the 40s. The area of high pressure will be 1030mb and will gradually sink into the region on light N/NE winds. The cooler and drier air continues to arrive during Saturday with lower 60s under fair skies. Overnight temps will start out just a little chilly for the season with upper 30s for an average on Sunday morning, but highs will rebound to close to average. The still moderately strong 1028mb high will begin to edge eastward away from the four state area with a good return flow off the warm and muggy air of the Gulf of Mexico. This deepening southerly low level flow will start boosting our high temperatures to above normal with the warming trend continuing into the middle of next week with low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, low in the 40s will start the week near average will quickly climb through the 50s into midweek. Our work week will start to see a chance for rainfall developing by midweek with some warm air advection showers. This next cold front and associated air mass will graze the northern half of our area, and not really push through well allowing the wet pattern to linger into the latter portion of the work week. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 48 65 45 / 0 10 50 10 MLU 72 45 65 46 / 0 0 40 20 DEQ 72 48 62 41 / 0 40 50 10 TXK 72 49 63 44 / 0 20 50 10 ELD 73 44 63 41 / 0 10 50 20 TYR 74 50 65 46 / 0 10 40 0 GGG 74 48 65 45 / 0 10 50 10 LFK 75 48 68 48 / 0 10 40 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 13/13/24

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