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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KSHV 041053
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
453 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

.AVIATION...

Clear skies currently prevailing across our entire airspace attm.
That will be changing as we go through the day as we will begin to
see mid and high level cloud cover increase from the west in
advance of an upper level storm system that will bring some
showers with it after midnight tonight. Low level moisture should
remain just west of our airspace through this 24hr TAF period but
expect ceilings ranging from 150-200kft across most all terminals
later this afternoon through the evening and overnight hours. Look
for southeast winds today near or less than 10kts with those same
conditions overnight tonight. Did not include any WX with this
terminal package but there could be some elevated precipitation
in and/or near the TXK terminal towards sunrise Friday Morning.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday/

Clear and cool attm but not as cool as Wednesday Morning as
temperatures are all above freezing attm. Also, not dealing with
patchy fog or freezing fog this morning even through I would not
be surprised to see a few locations across NE LA lose a little
visibility before sunrise. Sfc ridge axis extends from Northern MS
thru NE LA into SE TX early this morning and this feature will
very slow shift eastward during the day. This will allow for a
returning southeasterly wind component today which always result
in a very rapid temperature rise given the relatively dry airmass
in place. Having said that, another day of going well above
guidance in the temperature department with afternoon highs in the
lower to middle 70s areawide. Upper ridging to move ovhd today
from the west as an upper trough in the wake of the ridge, moves
out of the Intermountain West and into the Great Plains this
evening into the overnight hours.

Should begin to see increasing high clouds during the day today
from the northwest. Low level moisture is virtually non-existent
however, at least not until Friday but upper forcing should become
sufficient enough to support chance pops across our northwest half
late tonight but we will need to try to saturate the atmosphere
from the top down to get this precipitation to reach the ground.
With the increasing mid and high level cloud cover, this should
help to hold temperatures up somewhat tonight with lows ranging
from the middle 40s east to near 50 west.

Low levels should become more saturated during the day Friday, at
least across the western half of the Four State Region with our
upper trough beginning to open up somewhat as it moves out of the
Upper Red River Basin Friday Morning and towards the Tenn and
Lower Miss Valley Friday Night. While the passage of a backdoor
cold front should hold off until making its appearance in our
region until Friday Night, abundant cloud cover and high chance
pops should result in slightly tempered temperatures on Friday
with highs ranging through the 60s areawide. Not expecting much in
the way of sfc based instability on Friday but mid-level lapse
rates support isolated thunderstorms with this convection on
Friday.

13

LONG TERM.../Friday night through Wednesday night/

The last of the light rain will be ending early in the evening hours
of Friday night with skies clearing out overnight and lows ranging in
the 40s. The area of high pressure will be 1030mb and will gradually
sink into the region on light N/NE winds. The cooler and drier air
continues to arrive during Saturday with lower 60s under fair skies.

Overnight temps will start out just a little chilly for the season
with upper 30s for an average on Sunday morning, but highs will
rebound to close to average. The still moderately strong 1028mb high
will begin to edge eastward away from the four state area with a
good return flow off the warm and muggy air of the Gulf of Mexico.

This deepening southerly low level flow will start boosting our high
temperatures to above normal with the warming trend continuing into
the middle of next week with low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, low in the
40s will start the week near average will quickly climb through the
50s into midweek. Our work week will start to see a chance for
rainfall developing by midweek with some warm air advection showers.
This next cold front and associated air mass will graze the northern
half of our area, and not really push through well allowing the wet
pattern to linger into the latter portion of the work week.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  48  65  45 /   0  10  50  10
MLU  72  45  65  46 /   0   0  40  20
DEQ  72  48  62  41 /   0  40  50  10
TXK  72  49  63  44 /   0  20  50  10
ELD  73  44  63  41 /   0  10  50  20
TYR  74  50  65  46 /   0  10  40   0
GGG  74  48  65  45 /   0  10  50  10
LFK  75  48  68  48 /   0  10  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

13/13/24