Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000 FXUS64 KSHV 191857 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 157 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Satellite imagery from this afternoon continues to show some mid to high level clouds stream over the area from the west. Expecting this trend to continue as we head into the overnight hours tonight. While it is not anticipated, there is a non-zero chance that a few sprinkles could be seen across our far southern zones of deep east Texas and central Louisiana overnight, but it will have little to no impact. Temperatures tonight will be around 5 degrees below seasonable normals with lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area. By Tuesday, surface high pressure that was over the area will continue to push to the east. Meanwhile, a unseasonably strong cold front, that is currently being analyzed to be across southern Kansas, will be approaching our northern zones by midday Tuesday. Temperatures will fall rapidly behind the cold front, with highs being reached early in the day for our northern zones. The cold front should push through the entire area by Tuesday evening. Model consensus is keeping the area fairly dry as the cold front pushes through on Tuesday. That being said, HREF members are showing a few showers possibly popping up along the front as it moves through the area. At this time, will leave the forecast fairly dry, with only some low end PoPs across portions of southwest Arkansas, but there is a chance some additional showers could pop up as the front moves through the region. Northwesterly flow behind the front will help usher in some near record breaking cold temperatures for portions of the area. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 30s across our northern zones to the lower 40s across our southern zones. At this time, it appears that Shreveport, Tyler, Longview, Texarkana, and El Dorado have the best chance at tying or breaking lows Wednesday morning. /33/ .LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/ The start of the long term period to be characterized by continued cold air advection as high pressure builds across the region behind a cold front. Temperatures on Wednesday to climb into the mid 60s. As surface high settles over the region overnight, winds to become light and variable with overnight lows in the lower 40s areawide. Pattern to transition into a warmer regime as surface high shifts east and southerly flow increases across east Texas on Thursday. Additionally, upper-flow to become more zonal with moisture increasing aloft allowing for increased cloud cover into Thursday night. Temperatures to range from highs on Thursday in the mid 60s to lower 70s, to lows in the lower to middle 50s on Thursday night. Showers to increase in coverage on Friday as upper-level flow becomes southwest ahead of a trough forecast to swing east across Texas. The most active convective period through the long term will be from Friday night into Saturday. Increased low-level moisture combined with steepening lapse rates ahead of an approaching frontal boundary will provide deep convection areawide on Friday night, supporting thundersorms. Severe threat remains uncertain Friday night going into Saturday. Determining factors will depend on the strength and and placement of the upper-trough as it moves across the region along with the time of day and its collocation with the frontal boundary. Otherwise, conditions forecast to improve on Saturday evening as high pressure rebuilds across the region. Temperatures to range from highs in the mid 70s to lows in the 50s late in the weekend. /05/ && .AVIATION... For the 19/18z TAFs...Surface observations and latest satellite imagery from early this afternoon are showing a few mid to high level clouds moving through the area. Despite the cloud cover, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals through this TAF period. Winds will generally remain around or below 5 kts through most of the TAF period, with the exception of some breezy conditions for KTYR and KGGG towards the end of the period. There is a chance for some patchy fog development towards daybreak tomorrow so have some mention of BR for KLFK and KMLU. /33/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 49 75 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 50 76 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 45 68 34 65 / 0 10 0 0 TXK 49 71 37 64 / 0 20 0 0 ELD 46 76 36 65 / 0 20 0 0 TYR 50 71 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 47 73 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 50 79 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 33/05/33

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