National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KSHV 191857
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
157 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/

Satellite imagery from this afternoon continues to show some mid
to high level clouds stream over the area from the west. Expecting
this trend to continue as we head into the overnight hours
tonight. While it is not anticipated, there is a non-zero chance
that a few sprinkles could be seen across our far southern zones
of deep east Texas and central Louisiana overnight, but it will
have little to no impact. Temperatures tonight will be around 5
degrees below seasonable normals with lows ranging from the mid
40s to lower 50s across the area.

By Tuesday, surface high pressure that was over the area will
continue to push to the east. Meanwhile, a unseasonably strong
cold front, that is currently being analyzed to be across southern
Kansas, will be approaching our northern zones by midday Tuesday.
Temperatures will fall rapidly behind the cold front, with highs
being reached early in the day for our northern zones. The cold
front should push through the entire area by Tuesday evening.
Model consensus is keeping the area fairly dry as the cold front
pushes through on Tuesday. That being said, HREF members are
showing a few showers possibly popping up along the front as it
moves through the area. At this time, will leave the forecast
fairly dry, with only some low end PoPs across portions of
southwest Arkansas, but there is a chance some additional showers
could pop up as the front moves through the region.

Northwesterly flow behind the front will help usher in some near
record breaking cold temperatures for portions of the area.
Overnight lows will drop into the lower 30s across our northern
zones to the lower 40s across our southern zones. At this time, it
appears that Shreveport, Tyler, Longview, Texarkana, and El Dorado
have the best chance at tying or breaking lows Wednesday morning.

/33/

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/

The start of the long term period to be characterized by continued
cold air advection as high pressure builds across the region behind
a cold front. Temperatures on Wednesday to climb into the mid 60s.
As surface high settles over the region overnight, winds to become
light and variable with overnight lows in the lower 40s areawide.

Pattern to transition into a warmer regime as surface high shifts
east and southerly flow increases across east Texas on Thursday.
Additionally, upper-flow to become more zonal with moisture
increasing aloft allowing for increased cloud cover into Thursday
night. Temperatures to range from highs on Thursday in the mid 60s
to lower 70s, to lows in the lower to middle 50s on Thursday night.

Showers to increase in coverage on Friday as upper-level flow
becomes southwest ahead of a trough forecast to swing east across
Texas. The most active convective period through the long term will
be from Friday night into Saturday. Increased low-level moisture
combined with steepening lapse rates ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary will provide deep convection areawide on Friday night,
supporting thundersorms. Severe threat remains uncertain Friday
night going into Saturday. Determining factors will depend on the
strength and and placement of the upper-trough as it moves across
the region along with the time of day and its collocation with the
frontal boundary.

Otherwise, conditions forecast to improve on Saturday evening as
high pressure rebuilds across the region. Temperatures to range from
highs in the mid 70s to lows in the 50s late in the weekend. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 19/18z TAFs...Surface observations and latest satellite
imagery from early this afternoon are showing a few mid to high
level clouds moving through the area. Despite the cloud cover, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals through this
TAF period. Winds will generally remain around or below 5 kts
through most of the TAF period, with the exception of some breezy
conditions for KTYR and KGGG towards the end of the period. There
is a chance for some patchy fog development towards daybreak
tomorrow so have some mention of BR for KLFK and KMLU. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  75  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  76  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  45  68  34  65 /   0  10   0   0
TXK  49  71  37  64 /   0  20   0   0
ELD  46  76  36  65 /   0  20   0   0
TYR  50  71  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  47  73  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  50  79  41  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

33/05/33