Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --081 FXUS64 KSHV 141749 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Scattered diurnally driven convection remains on tap for today across much of the region. - Heating trend commences over the next few days, with temperatures approaching triple digits and dangerous heat indices. - Watching for the potential of some tropical moisture late this week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 After some early morning convection primarily north of the I-30 corridor, radar activity has diminished somewhat through the early afternoon hours. However, new convective development is beginning to emerge across portions of the forecast area. While short-term model guidance has struggled with accurately capturing these daily diurnal storms, the general consensus points to an uptick in convective activity later this afternoon. Given the combination of earlier rainfall and the potential for training thunderstorms this afternoon across northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma, a Flood Watch has been issued for Red River and McCurtain Counties. Though some model uncertainty remains, particularly regarding storm placement and intensity, recent moisture increases over the region support the potential for localized flooding. In addition, we are monitoring a surge of sea breeze convection currently located just south of the region in southern Louisiana, which could move into our southern zones later today. Today is likely to be the coolest day of the week, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Unfortunately, a warming trend is anticipated through midweek, with daytime highs climbing steadily. Heat Advisory criteria may be approached or met in some locations as early as Tuesday. While coordination with neighboring offices led to a decision to hold off on issuance for now, future forecast packages may include heat headlines pending updated guidance. Lastly, attention will shift toward the Gulf later this week, as forecast models continue to suggest the possibility of tropical development. Current trends favor a system tracking beneath the ridge and approaching southern or southeastern Louisiana by late Thursday or Friday. Confidence in specific details remains low at this time, but residents are encouraged to monitor updates in the coming days as forecast clarity improves.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 For the ArkLaTex terminals, so far MVFR are lifting to VFR with a peppering of showers mainly east of I-49 with expectations for mid aftn thunderstorms. The sea breeze is also headed toward KMLU for now. Better coverage will materialize this aftn with gusty wind and potential vsby reductions with heavy downpours. We will amend VCSH/VCTS with a brief tempo for any terminal impacts. Overnight SW winds will lay down to less than 5KT with clouds thinning and a window for BR 11-15Z. /24/-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early evening across portions of East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and North Louisiana for the potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall, which may result in localized flooding.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --SHV 77 97 78 99 / 20 10 0 0 MLU 75 97 76 99 / 20 20 0 10 DEQ 70 90 71 93 / 30 30 10 10 TXK 74 96 75 99 / 30 20 0 0 ELD 72 95 73 98 / 20 20 10 10 TYR 74 93 74 93 / 20 10 0 0 GGG 74 94 74 95 / 20 10 0 0 LFK 74 95 73 96 / 20 20 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --AR...None. LA...None. OK...Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...24