-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
150
FXUS64 KSHV 122331
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
631 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

 - An uptick in convective coverage is expected this afternoon and
   evening across the Four State Region and that will likely
   continue into Sunday as well.

 - Rain chances diminish through midweek.

 - An easterly wave in the gulf could introduce uncertainty in
   regards to temps and rain chances late in the workweek.

 &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

An upper-level trough across the Red River Valley of north Texas
will bring scattered convection to the the ArkLaTex this
afternoon into this evening. Some strong storms with gusty winds,
small hail, and locally heavy rainfall may be possible across
mainly the I-30 corridor. Elsewhere, most convection this
afternoon into this evening will be diurnally generated as
temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s with possible seabreeze
forcing.

With the upper-trough remaining nearly stationary through the
weekend into early next week across the Red River Valley,
increased instability to continue across the I-30 corridor. Model
discrepancies have led to uncertainty regarding timing and
placement of periodic mesoscale convective clusters supportive of
heavy rainfall. Due to the dynamically shifting model trends
regarding timing of convection, went ahead and incorporated a
generalized wet bias across these areas through early next week.

Pattern begins to shift through the upcoming workweek as as an
upper-ridge to the east retrogrades west across the ArkLaTex.
Rain chances to diminish significantly from Tuesday into Wednesday
with subsidence from the ridge to drive afternoon temperatures
into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Uncertainty creeps back
into the forecast late in the workweek as models are beginning to
diverge over a disturbance in the Gulf of America that may bring
unsettled weather to the ArkLaTex on Thursday into Friday. Should
the ridge instead hold across the ArkLaTex, hotter and drier
conditions to prevail. Will have to wait for later model runs to
offer more certainty regarding the the long-term forecast period.

05

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

An upper-level trough across the Red River Valley of north Texas
will bring scattered convection to the the ArkLaTex this
afternoon into this evening. Some strong storms with gusty winds,
small hail, and locally heavy rainfall may be possible across
mainly the I-30 corridor. Elsewhere, most convection this
afternoon into this evening will be diurnally generated as
temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s with possible seabreeze
forcing.

With the upper-trough remaining nearly stationary through the
weekend into early next week across the Red River Valley,
increased instability to continue across the I-30 corridor. Model
discrepancies have led to uncertainty regarding timing and
placement of periodic mesoscale convective clusters supportive of
heavy rainfall. Due to the dynamically shifting model trends
regarding timing of convection, went ahead and incorporated a
generalized wet bias across these areas through early next week.

Pattern begins to shift through the upcoming workweek as as an
upper-ridge to the east retrogrades west across the ArkLaTex.
Rain chances to diminish significantly from Tuesday into Wednesday
with subsidence from the ridge to drive afternoon temperatures
into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Uncertainty creeps back
into the forecast late in the workweek as models are beginning to
diverge over a disturbance in the Gulf of America that may bring
unsettled weather to the ArkLaTex on Thursday into Friday. Should
the ridge instead hold across the ArkLaTex, hotter and drier
conditions to prevail. Will have to wait for later model runs to
offer more certainty regarding the the long-term forecast period.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Most sites have VFR conditions prevailing with tempo TSRA over the
next few hours. Storms on the eastern half of the region should
gradually diminish over that period of time, with some recent
models having the storms in East Texas hanging on later. I have
the East Texas sites and KTXK being dry starting around 13/07z,
but that may change depending on how things trend with the current
convection. LA sites may have some MVFR/IFR cigs around daybreak
that will gradually lift over a few hours. I have more convection
beginning across the area as early as 13/17z, that will become
VCTS everywhere by the afternoon. /57/
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Spotter activation is not likely today through tonight as widespread
damaging wind gusts are not forecast. However, isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening which
could produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall that could
result in localized flooding. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHV  77  95  77  96 /  30  40  20  30
MLU  74  96  76  96 /  30  40  10  30
DEQ  71  90  71  89 /  70  70  30  50
TXK  75  95  75  95 /  50  40  30  40
ELD  73  94  73  94 /  30  40  20  40
TYR  75  93  74  92 /  40  40  20  30
GGG  74  94  74  93 /  30  40  20  30
LFK  74  94  74  94 /  10  40  10  30
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57