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206
FXUS64 KSJT 191114
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
614 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

An upper level low/trough is centered across northern Mexico and
will track across far West Texas today, then across West Central
Texas overnight. As this feature approaches, isolated to scattered
showers will be possible today, mainly south of an Eldorado to Brady
line. Only light accumulations are expected, with most areas
receiving less than one tenth of an inch. In addition, increasing
cloud cover is expected today, especially across the southern half
of the area. Highs today will be below seasonal normals, in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the
low to mid 40s. A strong cold front will approach the northern Big
Country around daybreak, resulting in gusty north winds of 15 to 20
mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

A cold front will move through West Central Texas from the north on
Tuesday, with gusty north winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph
and cool air moving in behind it. Expect the front to arrive to the
northern Big Country counties around sunrise Tuesday, and race
through the region, making it to the I-10 corridor by early
afternoon. Due to the earlier arrival of the front to the Big
Country, expect cooler highs in that region in the mid to upper 50s,
with slightly warmer conditions in the Concho Valley and Heartland
(highs in the 60s), and even warmer high temperatures in the I-10
corridor (upper 60s to mid 70s). Surface high pressure will build in
behind the front Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning.
Post-frontal winds will remain breezy Tuesday evening out of the
northeast direction, then turning more out of the easterly direction
and weakening after midnight as the core of the surface high moves
south into the Red River region. By sunrise Wednesday, NAM model
indicates surface winds may become light across the Big Country,
which would enhance the radiational cooling and potentially bring
lows down into the 31-33 degree range in that region. As a result,
a Freeze Watch has been issued for the Big Country counties.
South of the Big Country, lows look to reach the mid 30s to low
40s.

During the day Wednesday, easterly winds and a cool air mass look to
continue, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. On Thursday, zonal
flow will exist aloft, while flow at the surface and low levels will
turn out of the south to southeast direction as the ridge moves to
the east. This will result in moist Gulf air moving into the region,
creating widespread low clouds Wednesday night through Thursday. The
mostly cloudy to overcast skies will keep highs on the cool side on
Thursday (highs in the low to upper 60s).

The 850 mb thermal ridge will warm significantly on Friday, although
there is the possibility of morning cloud cover continuing during
the afternoon which could make it not as warm as it would otherwise
be. Current forecast has highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. As far as
rain chances for Friday, an upper level trough will move down into
the AZ/NM region, and a short-wave embedded in the southwest flow
aloft will combine with a tightening dry-line and instability to
likely create scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with highest
chances across the eastern half of the forecast area. Latest model
guidance shows that the upper level trough will move through
quickly, with rain chances ending by sunrise Saturday.

Another cold front looks to move through either Friday night or
Saturday morning, but likely not impact temperatures too much (highs
Saturday in the mid 70s to low 80s). On Sunday, southerly surface to
low level flow and strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge will
bring warmer temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

A few showers are possible today, mainly affecting KSOA.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and winds below 10 knots to
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  45  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  71  47  65  36 /  10   0   0   0
Junction  70  45  75  40 /  20   0   0   0
Brownwood  71  44  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  71  43  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       67  46  70  41 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
for Callahan-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor-
Throckmorton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....SJH
AVIATION...Daniels