Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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690 FXUS64 KSJT 151836 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch has been extended until 9 PM CDT for the Northern Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill Country, and Heartland. - Scattered thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall, are expected this afternoon and early evening. - A more settled pattern with a warming trend in temperatures is expected later this week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Main area of rain this morning has broken up, but more scattered showers and storms are starting to develop. Latest visible satellite imagery is certainly more bubbly, and latest CAMs show this scattered convection blossoming this afternoon across areas mainly southeast of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. More isolated activity is certainly possible as well across most of the remainder of West Central Texas and this is already being noted by the convection developing from Robert Lee to south of Sweetwater. Air mass remains very moist (PWAT`s near 2 inches), so storms will be very efficient rain producers. This will be offset by the storms at least showing some decent movement (15kt movement with the convection we have on the radar now). Still though, a quick 1 to 2 inches with this activity is possible, with areas seeing a couple of these storms seeing totals for the afternoon of 3+ inches. Some areas can handle that much rain, but many others would struggle with totals even less than that. Will extend the Flood Watch through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Models say that this will be the last day of convection. That is probably a low confidence forecast. Air mass isn`t changing and the mid/upper level shear axis will still persist across the area. Models yesterday were not terribly aggressive for today either, not until the convection south along the Texas/Mexico border got going and produced another northward moving MCV. Will need to watch down there this afternoon to make sure another repeat doesn`t happen and spawn another northward moving MCV back towards the area. Given the air mass, just won`t take very much lift to produce another round of showers and storms. && .LONG TERM...
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(Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The global models are indicating pretty much an end to the unsettled pattern and more of a upper level ridge over our area through this weekend. As a result, expect warmer temperatures and dry weather. Expect highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s Thursday, warming into the mid 90s to around 100 across the western Big Country and northwest Concho Valley early next week. However, expect humid conditions to continue, with afternoon heat index values of 100 to 103 across the Big Country early next week.
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&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Main area of rain has broken up early this afternoon, but scattered convection is expected to redevelop across much of the area later this afternoon. Hard to tell whether any of this will be near one of the terminals, so went ahead and ran a PROB30 at all locations for the afternoon hours. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions this afternoon and evening, with some MVFR cigs moving back into the southern terminals around sunrise Wednesday morning. South winds will prevail but may be gusty and variable near any of the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 73 92 73 95 / 10 10 0 0 San Angelo 72 90 71 92 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 72 89 68 90 / 10 10 0 0 Brownwood 73 90 71 92 / 20 10 0 0 Sweetwater 72 94 72 95 / 10 10 0 0 Ozona 71 88 70 89 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 71 88 68 89 / 20 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Concho-Kimble- Mason-McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher-Sutton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...07