Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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206 FXUS64 KSJT 191114 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 614 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 An upper level low/trough is centered across northern Mexico and will track across far West Texas today, then across West Central Texas overnight. As this feature approaches, isolated to scattered showers will be possible today, mainly south of an Eldorado to Brady line. Only light accumulations are expected, with most areas receiving less than one tenth of an inch. In addition, increasing cloud cover is expected today, especially across the southern half of the area. Highs today will be below seasonal normals, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s. A strong cold front will approach the northern Big Country around daybreak, resulting in gusty north winds of 15 to 20 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 A cold front will move through West Central Texas from the north on Tuesday, with gusty north winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph and cool air moving in behind it. Expect the front to arrive to the northern Big Country counties around sunrise Tuesday, and race through the region, making it to the I-10 corridor by early afternoon. Due to the earlier arrival of the front to the Big Country, expect cooler highs in that region in the mid to upper 50s, with slightly warmer conditions in the Concho Valley and Heartland (highs in the 60s), and even warmer high temperatures in the I-10 corridor (upper 60s to mid 70s). Surface high pressure will build in behind the front Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. Post-frontal winds will remain breezy Tuesday evening out of the northeast direction, then turning more out of the easterly direction and weakening after midnight as the core of the surface high moves south into the Red River region. By sunrise Wednesday, NAM model indicates surface winds may become light across the Big Country, which would enhance the radiational cooling and potentially bring lows down into the 31-33 degree range in that region. As a result, a Freeze Watch has been issued for the Big Country counties. South of the Big Country, lows look to reach the mid 30s to low 40s. During the day Wednesday, easterly winds and a cool air mass look to continue, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. On Thursday, zonal flow will exist aloft, while flow at the surface and low levels will turn out of the south to southeast direction as the ridge moves to the east. This will result in moist Gulf air moving into the region, creating widespread low clouds Wednesday night through Thursday. The mostly cloudy to overcast skies will keep highs on the cool side on Thursday (highs in the low to upper 60s). The 850 mb thermal ridge will warm significantly on Friday, although there is the possibility of morning cloud cover continuing during the afternoon which could make it not as warm as it would otherwise be. Current forecast has highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. As far as rain chances for Friday, an upper level trough will move down into the AZ/NM region, and a short-wave embedded in the southwest flow aloft will combine with a tightening dry-line and instability to likely create scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with highest chances across the eastern half of the forecast area. Latest model guidance shows that the upper level trough will move through quickly, with rain chances ending by sunrise Saturday. Another cold front looks to move through either Friday night or Saturday morning, but likely not impact temperatures too much (highs Saturday in the mid 70s to low 80s). On Sunday, southerly surface to low level flow and strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge will bring warmer temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 A few showers are possible today, mainly affecting KSOA. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and winds below 10 knots to prevail through the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 45 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 71 47 65 36 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 70 45 75 40 / 20 0 0 0 Brownwood 71 44 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 71 43 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 67 46 70 41 / 30 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for Callahan-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor- Throckmorton. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....SJH AVIATION...Daniels

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