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347
FXUS64 KSJT 091919
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
219 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR Severe Storm Potential...
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Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A dryline currently stretches from around Sweetwater south through
just east of Sonora, while a southward moving cold front stretched
from Sweetwater east through Baird. The ongoing severe convection
across southeast Shackelford county developed along the front, but
no other strong to severe thunderstorms are noted on radar imagery
in our area at the moment. However, visible satellite shows towers
going up over central Tom Green county, so this may be the next
area of convective development over the next couple hours. There
is plenty of instability east of the dry-line and south of the
front, with ML CAPE of 3000+ J/KG, and decent mid level lapse
rates of 7.5-8. Meanwhile, sufficient effective shear of 45-50 KT
and Storm Relative Helicity of 100+ m2/s2 indicate increased
likelihood of supercells. Mean storm motion vectors being roughly
perpendicular to the dry-line increases the chance for the storm
mode to be discrete supercells, which increases the chances for
large to very large hail and perhaps some tornadoes. Significant
Tornado Parameters of 1 to 3 in the Heartland and eastern Big
Country indicates that the best tornado potential will be in those
areas for the next few hours. Damaging winds are also possible.

SJH
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Tornado Watch in Affect through 9PM CT tonight across the
Northwest Hill Country, Heartland, Eastern Concho Valley, and
Southeast Big Country.

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening mainly across the Heartland, Northwest Hill Country,
Eastern Concho Valley, and Eastern Big Country. Large hail,
Damaging Winds, and Isolated Tornadoes are possible across these
areas through 9PM tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected
behind the cold front tonight into Friday, with temperatures only
reaching into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southwest,
potentially affecting the Northern Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill
Country, Concho Valley, and Western Heartland. Storms that do
develop are not expected to become as severe as we are currently
expecting this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Cooler temperatures along with precipitation chances are still
anticipated this weekend.

Expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday, with
increasing clouds and breezy northeast winds.

Saturday into Sunday continues to look promising for scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Medium range models are in fairly good
agreement with the evolution of the upper level pattern from
Friday night into Sunday. An upper level low will move from
northwestern AZ into the southern plains. As this trough
approaches, shortwaves will move over Texas in southwest flow
aloft. At the surface east to southeast flow will result in
upslope lift, especially to our west. In addition, the cold front
that will move through the area today will be returning back to
the north as a warm front. All this should be enough to bring some
scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area from Saturday
into Sunday. As far as strength of storms, plenty of deep layer
shear will be available, but low level instability is expected to
be fairly low until during the day Sunday. So, while thunderstorms
will be possible, most should remain below severe levels from
Saturday into Saturday night, with stronger storms possible
Sunday.

Expect precipitation to move out of the area by Monday night, and
we`ll see a warming trend for the first half of next week. The
next chance for precipitation will begin affecting the area by
late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions will remain across all terminals through this
afternoon with increased potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible across our eastern-most terminals
through this evening. KBBD, KABI, and KJCT could see a shower or
thunderstorm through this evening which has been included into the
TAF package with the most recent update. Winds will be gusty ahead
of the front and remain from the north to northeast through
Friday. MVFR conditions are possible again tonight into Friday
morning and have been included into the TAF package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Abilene     59  78  60  73 /  10  10  10  50
San Angelo  62  80  62  73 /  10  30  20  70
Junction    64  82  63  79 /  10  30  20  50
Brownwood   60  78  60  74 /  40  10  10  40
Sweetwater  59  78  61  70 /  10  10  10  70
Ozona       62  78  61  74 /  10  40  30  60
Brady       63  77  61  74 /  20  20  10  50
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&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...TP