Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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542 FXUS64 KSJT 200842 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and tonight) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Early this morning skies were mostly clear with mild temperatures in the mid 70s. A somewhat humid airmass was in place, characterized by dewpoints in the 60s. A broad upper level trough located over the Midwest and sprawling southwestward through the southern Plains will be the main driver of the the weather today through tonight. High temperatures this afternoon should climb to the upper 90s and, with dewpoints in the low 60s, should allow instability values of 1500-2000 J/kg to develop. Models show an upper level impulse, possibly an MCV from yesterday evening`s thunderstorms, rotating through the upper trough and into the Big Country this afternoon. This, along with the instability, should help to spawn a southward-moving line of thunderstorms around the I-20 corridor this afternoon. The main concerns with this activity will be locally heavy rain, given PWAT values of 1.5-2 inches, but some gusty winds are possible with any storm that develops. Storms should die off by midnight as instability subsides and give way to another mild night in the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM...
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(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday into Monday as an upper trough replaces upper ridging, and weak cold front moves into the region and washes out. Localized flooding possible as storms will be slow moving and precipital waters increase to the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Tuesday, the main focus for storm development will shift south of the Big Country, and for the Wednesday into Friday time period...along/southeast of a Sonora to Brownwood line. Storms and clouds will keep temperatures down, particularly Monday and Tuesdays, where highs are expected to be mainly in the 80s. Temperatures warm back into the 90s in the Big Country and Concho Valley the rest of the work week.
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&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 VFR conditions with southerly winds through Saturday evening. Chances for storms will increase near Abilene and Sweetwater by early afternoon then around San Angelo and Brady by late afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 72 92 70 / 30 20 50 40 San Angelo 99 74 93 70 / 10 20 60 40 Junction 97 73 94 71 / 10 10 50 20 Brownwood 96 72 92 70 / 20 20 40 40 Sweetwater 99 72 93 70 / 30 30 50 50 Ozona 95 72 91 70 / 10 10 50 40 Brady 95 72 92 70 / 10 10 40 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...SK