Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 181922

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 19 2018 - 00Z Sat Apr 21 2018

...Late season snowfall accumulations expected from the Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and interior New

...Dry and windy conditions will significantly increase the threat
for wildfire production over the Four Corners into the High

A compact upper low accelerating from the Middle Mississippi
Valley toward the Upper Great Lakes continues to spread a mixture
of wintry precipitation types to the region. While a bulk of the
heavier snowfall will have concluded across northern Iowa/southern
Minnesota by this evening, some lighter accumulations are likely
farther east. More specifically, this will include locations from
the vicinity of Chicago, Illinois eastward across the Upper Ohio
Valley into a vast majority of the interior northeastern U.S. To
the south of this wintry precipitation axis, a broad swath of
quarter to half inch amounts of rain are possible from Pittsburgh,
Pennsylvania through New York City and into Boston, Massachusetts.
Regarding temperatures, readings should remain well below average
across this region with anomalies in the 10 to 20 degree range.
Such numbers are expected to continue into Friday with general
troughing remaining in place.

Another strong Pacific system is primed to move through the Desert
Southwest by midday Thursday. While being a focus for snow across
the Colorado Rockies with amounts in the 6 to 10 inch range over
the higher peaks, the dry and windy conditions will again enhance
the threat for additional wildfires. The latest Storm Prediction
Center fire weather outlook highlights much of the Four Corners
region into the adjacent High Plains in a critical to extreme risk
for wildfire production. Expect dry, gusty winds to rush through
the region as the parent cold front approaches from the west. This
will ultimately enhance the threat for dust storms and intensify
any active fires over the region. Some precipitation is expected,
but it appears rather scattered in nature with the best
organization likely north of the fire weather threat area.

While these sectors of the country should remain active, it will
be much quieter over other locations. Precipitation should
gradually return to the Washington coast by the end of the period
with the heavier activity sitting offshore on Friday afternoon.
Temperatures are expected to be slightly above climatology ahead
of the trough before cooler weather arrives thereafter.


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