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000
FXUS01 KWBC 240749
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 24 2024 - 12Z Fri Apr 26 2024

...Unsettled weather and severe thunderstorm chances gradually
expand across much of the central United States over the next
several days...

...Active fire weather pattern to become situated over the
southern High Plains...

...Above average temperatures shift from the Great Basin to the
Plains, while the West and East remain cool through the end of the
week...

The benign weather pattern experienced throughout much of the
Nation over the last few days is expected to conclude as
developing upper troughing over the western U.S. helps create a
ripe spring severe weather setup over parts of the central and
southern Plains. This trough is expected to enter the Southwest by
early Thursday and swing into the central Plains by Friday. At the
surface, returning moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will begin to
lift northward today and pool along a gradually lifting warm front
draped across the southern Plains. Combined with a southern High
Plains dryline, a few developing thunderstorms could turn severe
today from West Texas to central Oklahoma, as well as the chances
for isolated flash flooding. A greater severe weather threat
exists beginning on Thursday as a surface cyclone rapidly deepens
over the central High Plains in response to the approaching upper
level trough. The aforementioned warm front is expected to
continue lifting northward while the High Plains dryline pushes
east. This environment is anticipated to produce numerous
thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains, with
scattered storms turning severe. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather across
parts of southwest/south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma into
the eastern Texas Panhandle. Very large hail, severe wind gusts,
and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. Multiple
rounds of heavy rain could also lead to scattered flash flooding,
which has prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall
across parts of northeast Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, western
Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. By Friday, the aforementioned
low pressure system is forecast to deepen and slide east into the
central Plains while shower and thunderstorm chances also push
eastward into the Upper Midwest, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley,
and southern Plains.

Behind the dryline across the southern High Plains, the
combination of very low relative humidity and gusty winds are
expected to create Critical Fire Weather on Thursday and Friday.
Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning
is not recommended. Additionally, gusty winds up to 55 mph could
lead to areas of blowing dust.

Precipitation chances will also exist elsewhere across the Nation.
A cold front crossing the Northeast today will spread showers over
the region, with snow showers possible across northern New
England. Unsettled weather is expected to develop over the West,
Great Basin, and Rockies as well over the next few days underneath
the deepening upper trough. Most precipiation is expected to
remain mostly light, with embedded downpours and high elevation
heavy snow by Friday across the Rockies. This active weather will
also lead to a cooling trend throughout the West compared to the
spring warmth felt over the last few days. Chilly weather is also
forecast across the Northeast through the end of the week as high
pressure builds southward from Canada. Low temperatures could dip
below freezing on Thursday morning and have prompted Freeze
Watches to be issued from the Lower Great Lakes to southern New
England. Most of the above average warmth will be found throughout
the Plains, besides of any areas experiencing prolonged periods of
rainfall, with highs into the 80s remaining across the Southern
Tier States until Friday.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$