Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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216
FXUS01 KWBC 252000
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Valid 00Z Sat May 26 2018 - 00Z Mon May 28 2018

...A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is possible from the
Great Lakes to the southern Plains...

...Sub Tropical Storm Alberto tracking northward through the Gulf
of Mexico will give way to rainfall across the Gulf Coast,
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...

...Plains and Upper Midwest will have well above normal
temperatures...

Showers and thunderstorms will fire across the High Plains this
weekend with the help of warm, moist air transporting north
through the central CONUS from the Gulf of Mexico. With
instability in place and a cold front sweeping across the Upper
Midwest, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of
this boundary. The Storm Prediction Center has issued slight risks
for severe weather through Saturday morning for
Wisconsin/Minnesota/Iowa border where convection will fire along
the frontal boundary and another area along the Texas/Oklahoma
were strong convection will fire east of a dry line. For specific
details on the risks of severe weather, please refer to the SPC
website.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will pass from the West Coast
through the Great Basin and Intermountain West as low pressure
system advances slowly through the region- with snow possible in
the higher peaks Portions of the Intermountain West will have a
marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop.
Meanwhile, an impressive cold front will drop south into New
England by Saturday morning with showers and thunderstorms is
expected to fire off ahead of this boundary and will move into the
interior of New England These storms do have a marginal risk of
becoming severe. As the cold front presses southward across
southern New England and into the Northeast, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to follow suit.

Sub Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to strength to strength as
it tracks from the northwest Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico.
This system will bring an abundance of moisture across the Gulf
Coast and Southeast with and increased chance for thunderstorms
for the Central Appalachians.

Temperatures heading into the holiday weekend will vary in terms
of respect to climatology depending on the region. The Southeast
will generally be below normal due to the wet conditions.  The
Great Basin and West Coast will also be below normal as a cold
front and showers and thunderstorms sweep across the area. The
northern and central Plains, northern Mississippi Valley and Upper
Midwest will be nearly 20 degrees above normal throughout the
weekend! High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-90s.
West Texas can also expect temperatures to reach the century
mark--with these temperatures being 10 to 15 degrees above normal.



Campbell/Reinhart


Graphics available at
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$





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