661
FXUS01 KWBC 022016
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 03 2025 - 00Z Sat Jul 05 2025

...Scattered Flash Flooding will be possible across western Texas
and New Mexico and around the Tampa Bay region for Thursday...

...Severe thunderstorms are likely to form over the Dakotas and
across the Northeast tomorrow...

Above average temperatures will be translating eastward across the
Plains to the eastern seaboard by the end of the week...

The overall weather pattern will generally see a mid-level ridge
build and move eastward across the northern Plains and Midwest for
tomorrow and then to the east coast by the weekend. Anomalous
warmth across the Midwest and Plains for Thursday and Friday will
then be felt along the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and east coast
for the 4th of July weekend. Then, a trough will move into the
West and bring a surface cold front across the northern Rockies
and Dakotas for tomorrow into Friday, sparking locally strong
thunderstorms across the High Plains and upper Midwest. A frontal
boundary will clear most of the east coast and bring much drier
conditions, but the front will stall across northern Florida and
interact with tropical moisture to produce locally heavy rain,
especially around the Sun Coast and Tampa Bay, and may produce
flash flooding. Monsoonal moisture will bring locally heavy
rainfall to parts of the Southwest.

On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain
will continue to occur over parts of Florida. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast for Thursday; the QPF forecast
calls for another 2-3 inches possible for tomorrow with locally
heavier amounts possible. Main hazards will be localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Locally heavy rain will
linger over Florida for the 4th of July weekend, but the flooding
risk should lessen.

Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream across the Southwest
for Thursday, with a targeted Slight Risk across portions of West
Texas and New Mexico. High rainfall rates will be promoted by high
surface moisture and sensitive areas could flood that see a couple
of inches of rain in a short time.

On Friday, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect for
the northern Rockies and the northern Plains as a front provides a
source for potential clusters of thunderstorms atop the ridge.
Surface fronts and general troughing atop the ridge will also
support severe potential across the Dakotas for tomorrow with the
main hazards of damaging winds and hail. The risk for strong
storms with damaging wind and hail potential will then shift
eastward on Friday across parts of the Dakotas into the upper
Midwest. The Northeast will see severe thunderstorms on Thursday
as a cold front enters the region. Strong winds and some hail are
the most likely threats.


Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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