081
FXUS01 KWBC 171939
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 18 2025 - 00Z Mon Jan 20 2025

...Snow with some moderate accumulations expected through the
Northern/Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains...

...Arctic front begins to bring hazardous cold to much of the
nation this weekend...

... Impacts from winter storms are likely over the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic Sunday and Monday and possible across the Deep South
this week...

Surface analysis shows a reinforcing Arctic frontal boundary
moving southward across the northern Plains and entering the
Midwest. Another leading frontal boundary of the cold air is
located over the northern Rockies and Midwest. A mid level
shortwave is located over the south-central U.S. with a surface
low also forming in the region. Showers are ongoing from Oklahoma
southward to Louisiana with this disturbance and some general
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. High pressure dominates the
southeast U.S..

Some locations in the inter-mountain west and Rockies,
particularly high terrain and mountain ranges, have Winter Weather
Advisories active for the remainder of Friday into Saturday with
the threat of several inches of snow accumulation and gusty winds
as the Arctic front moves through. Travel could be difficult at
times. Some particularly tough travel conditions are ongoing over
the northern Plains in North Dakota where a Blizzard Warning is
active through this evening for snow squalls and blowing snow.
This cold front will continue its passage southeastward and bring
chances for light snowfall totals and rain showers across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. More moderate totals are expected
where post-frontal flow across the Great Lakes will lead to some
lake-effect snow showers for favorable downwind locations,
especially along the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and east of Lake
Ontario.

This sweeping cold front is ushering in a frigid Arctic airmass
that will be one of the main national weather stories this weekend
and into the next week. Temperatures will plunge by 30-40 degrees
this weekend behind the front. Forecast highs this weekend will
have many residents in the northern Plains in the negative single
digits and areas in the Midwest in the single digits. Minimum wind
chills could be in the -30 to -55 range. This possesses a threat
for hypothermia and frostbite; safety precautions for the cold
should be taken. Highs in the 30s and 40s are likely in the
Southern Plains/northern Texas with lows in the 20s and teens and
wind chills below zero. Conditions will be at or above average
ahead of the front along the East Coast and the Southeast through
Saturday, with highs the next couple of days in the 30s and 40s
for the Northeast, the 40s and 50s from the Ohio Valley east
through the Carolinas, and the 60s and low 70s for the Southeast.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop along the leading
edge of the Arctic front in the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic and
move northeastward near the Northeast corridor. Cold air will be
in place, so expectations are for precipitation with this stem to
be in the form of snow. Sunday through Morning morning have high
probabilities of at least minor to moderate snow impacts from the
Appalachains though Maine. The current expectation is for the
metropolitan corridor from Washington D.C to Boston to see 3-6
inches of snowfall possible. Areas west of the 95 corridor could
see higher amounts with expectations of 5-10 inches possible and
locally higher max amounts possible. After the snow,temperatures
will be cold as highs are 15-25 degrees below normal for this time
of the year. Outside of the short range period, early next week
there is increasing confidence for winter weather impacts for the
South. See key message on the WPC website for early information.

Elsewhere, northern Florida is under a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall on Saturday and early Sunday with the potential for some
locally heavy thunderstorms that may train along some frontal
boundaries near the region.


Wilder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$