Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 241954

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Valid 00Z Fri May 25 2018 - 00Z Sun May 27 2018

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley through
Saturday morning...

...A wet weekend will be in store for the Southeast as heavy rain
spreads northward from a developing tropical system in the Gulf...

An area of low pressure has been observed drifting across Yucatan
Peninsula and is forecast to become better organized as it tracks
northward over the Gulf of Mexico. Florida and other southeast
states will have long periods of rainfall as this approaches.
Localized flash flooding may materialize as the event is underway.
WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall at this point,
forecast certainty will rely on the confidence of the track this
system will take.

A low pressure system lifting north and east through the Central
and Northern Plains will help generate scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms of the next couple of days. Conditions
will be favorable for some of these storms to become severe. SPC
has an area from the North Dakota/Minnesota border south to
eastern Colorado as having a slight risk for severe weather on
Friday, then shifting to the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday.

A front near northern Maine will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms over parts of Northern New England Friday afternoon
into  the evening hours. A developing upper-level low off the
California Coast will slowly move inland over California into
parts of the Great Basin Friday evening into Saturday. The coastal
rain and inland showers/thunderstorms will expand into parts of
the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin overnight continuing
into Friday evening/Saturday.  Before the upper-level low
develops, weak upper-level energy over parts of the Pacific
Northwest will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Intermountain
Region through late tonight.


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