Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 271938

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Valid 00Z Mon May 28 2018 - 00Z Wed May 30 2018

...Subtropical Storm Alberto will spread heavy rainfall across the
central Gulf Coast states, and parts of the Southeast and
Tennessee Valley...

...Severe weather possible across portions of the Plains...

...Record high temperatures to continue early this week from the
southern Plains to the Upper Midwest...

Based on the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center,
Subtropical Storm Alberto is expected to make landfall as a
tropical storm sometime Monday morning near the Florida panhandle,
and continue moving northward through Alabama and into the
Tennessee Valley by Tuesday evening. In the meantime, bands of
heavy rainfall will continue spreading across much of the Deep
South tonight and through Tuesday. The heaviest rainfall is
expected to be near the center of circulation from the Florida
panhandle into Alabama and central Tennessee, with a secondary
axis of higher rainfall totals expected across the Carolinas and
into southeast Virginia along a surface trough. A slight to
moderate risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding is highlighted
in WPCs excessive rainfall outlooks encompassing much of Florida,
the Southeast, the central Gulf Coast states, and into portions of
central Tennessee. As is typically the case with tropical systems,
there is also a slight risk for isolated tornadoes mainly across
Florida, as per the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction
Center. For the latest information on the track and intensity
forecasts of Alberto, please refer to the National Hurricane
Center (

Farther west, showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand
across portions of the Intermountain West and the Plains states
tonight. A surface low and cold front moving slowly eastward into
the high Plains should provide a focus for heavier rainfall and
strong to severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted much of the northern and central Plains, as well as
back into Wyoming, within a marginal to slight risk for severe
weather. WPC also has a marginal to slight risk for excessive
rainfall across parts of the Intermountain West and the High
Plains, in association with the upper level trough/closed low
itself. By Monday, showers and thunderstorms are also expected to
develop along a frontal boundary draped across the upper
Mississippi Valley.

Ahead of this system, strong ridging from the southern Plains to
the upper Midwest will keep record warmth in the forecast through
at least Monday. Afternoon high values are expected to be well
into the 90s, and possibly approaching or exceeding 100 degrees in
some places. This is 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time
of the year, and records from the southern Plains to the upper
Midwest will be challenged or broken. Heat advisories are in place
for some places across western Texas and southern Minnesota and
far northwest Iowa. By Tuesday, the ridge begins to break down as
the Western upper level low edges eastward, which should bring a
slight cooldown to the region.


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