Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 250759

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Valid 12Z Fri May 25 2018 - 12Z Sun May 27 2018

...A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is possible from the
Great Lakes to the southern Plains...

...A low moving into the Gulf of Mexico will give way to rainfall
across the Gulf Coast, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...

Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be transported across the
Plains and into the Great Lakes. With instability in place and a
cold front sweeping across the Upper Midwest, thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and ahead of this boundary. Some of
these storms have the potential to become severe. Farther south, a
dryline will assist in setting off convection especially across
Oklahoma and north Texas.  Once again, these storms also have the
potential to become severe. For more information, see the Storm
Prediction Center.

A low will migrate from the northwest Caribbean into the Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday and will continue to move northward through
Sunday. This system will bring an abundance of moisture across the
Gulf Coast and Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will increase
in coverage by Friday afternoon thanks to diurnal heating; from
the central Appalachians to Southeast Texas to most of Florida,
these regions can expect thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms will
fire off once again by Saturday and even spreading into the
Mid-Atlantic as moisture gets pulled northward.

Meanwhile, an impressive cold front will drop south from Canada
into New England by Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms is
expected to fire off ahead of this boundary and will move into the
interior of New England by Friday evening. These storms do have a
marginal risk of becoming severe.  As the cold front presses
southward across southern New England and into the Northeast,
showers and thunderstorms are expected to follow suit.

An upper level low will move over the West Coast today and slow as
it centers over the Four Corners by Saturday. Showers and
thunderstorms will spread throughout northern and central
California, Oregon, and western Nevada on Friday. Higher elevation
snow is possible in the Sierra Nevada mountain range.  In fact, a
winter weather advisory is in effect for this region. As the upper
low shifts to the Four Corners, precipitation will still continue
in the favored terrain of California but will also spread across
the Intermountain West and eventually into the northern Plains.

Temperatures heading into the holiday weekend will vary in terms
of respect to climatology depending on the region.  The Southeast
will generally be below normal due to the wet conditions.  The
Great Basin and West Coast will also be below normal as a cold
front and showers and thunderstorms sweep across the area. The
northern and central Plains, northern Mississippi Valley and Upper
Midwest will be nearly 20 degrees above normal throughout the
weekend! High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-90s.
West Texas can also expect temperatures to reach the century
mark--with these temperatures being 10 to 15 degrees above normal.


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