Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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428
FXUS66 KSTO 242035
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
135 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief cool down with onshore flow through Saturday, and
isolated shower chances this afternoon and evening over the
mountains. Warmer and drier weather then returns Sunday into next
week, with periodically breezy winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current GOES-West visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny
skies across much of interior northern California on this Friday
afternoon, with the exception of a few high cirrus clouds passing
by overhead, and decent culumus cloud development over the
northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. Temperatures are
currently trending approximately 3 to 12 degrees cooler than this
time yesterday afternoon, mainly in the Valley and foothills,
valid at 130 PM PDT. Locally breezy onshore winds are being
observed as broad troughing with an embedded shortwave influences
the region. Forecast highs today and Saturday will be trending
cooler than the climatological normal for late May as a result of
these features, along with periods of breezy onshore winds. In
addition, there is a slight chance for isolated showers or even a
brief thunderstorm this afternoon/evening in the mountains, mainly
over the Sierra Crest.

Upper level ridging starts to build in Sunday into next week,
bringing some rising heights and a resultant warming trend to the
region. High temperatures are expected to reach closer to normal
on Sunday, with highs in the 80 to 88 degree range in the Valley.
Slightly above normal temperatures are then forecast for the
Memorial Day Holiday, with highs generally in the 82 to 92 degree
range for the Valley. Ensemble guidance then shows the upper
level ridge slowly shifting eastward toward the Great Basin early
to mid next week.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...
Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis indicate the upper level
ridging to be primarily over the Great Basin in the middle of next
week, with troughing developing to the north and west. This will
allow for locally breezy onshore flow at times over the extended
forecast period. Slightly above normal temperatures look to
continue through much of next week, with mainly Minor Heat Risk.
Towards the end of the week there is a bit more uncertainty on the
potential outcomes of the trough and ridge influence in the
cluster analysis, which is resulting in a decent spread of high
temperatures for late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours, except possible MVFR/IFR in
marine stratus from about 11Z-17Z Saturday (50-90% probability in
the Delta and in the Valley south of Chico and north of Stockton).
Local southwest surface wind gusts 20-30 kts in the Delta and
over the Sierra, areas of southerly wind gusts 15-25 kts in the
Sacramento Valley, and west-northwesterly 15-25 kts across the
northern San Joaquin Valley.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$