-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
648
FXUS62 KTAE 142328
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
728 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Through this evening an upper level overcast cloud deck is moving
north across the region from an MCS to our south in the Gulf. This
cloud deck is looking to limit the development of any storms later
as direct diurnal heating is cut off. A developing Cu field to the
west, which in the models evolves into showers and possibly some
storms later, looks to be dissipating as the overhead overcast
reduces instability. It`s possible the models are overdoing the
convection or under-doing the cloud cover. However, with dew points
back into the upper 60s and low 70s, there remains a possibility for
some showers in any area that maintains a break in the clouds. A
thunderstorm or two could be possible as well. There is low
confidence in widespread coverage this afternoon and evening.

Once we get into tomorrow morning some redevelopment could be
possible along the cold front, primarily across the FL Big Bend and
southern Georgia as forcing for ascent is provided by the front. The
front is expected to clear our region by noon with mostly clear
skies expected tomorrow afternoon.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 80s to low 90s with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A needed break from severe weather is forecast through the
middle/later part of the upcoming week as the local area will be
under an approaching upper level ridge into Thursday night. At the
surface, west to northwest flow will prevail and temperatures
warm up for Thursday afternoon as high temperatures climb into the
upper 80s and low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Strengthening southwesterly flow moves into the region beginning
Friday and into upcoming weekend as moist southerly flow brings a
return to instability across across the region. Timing of any
specific severe weather threat still remains uncertain and much of
that has to do with the weak impulses that will be embedded in
the southwesterly flow driving the severe threat. The first
shortwave approaches southern AL/MS by daybreak Friday and while
much of the severe threat with this is likely to stay off to the
west and northwest as it lifts north of the forecast area, we`ll
need to monitor how the mesoscale details evolve later into the
week. Instability will be hard to come by in the morning hours of
Friday, but that could change through the day with afternoon
heating and additional moisture advection from the Gulf. For now
severe weather is generally not expected but upstream MCS
potential will need to be monitored as we approach Friday.

After Friday the trough continues east with widespread showers and
thunderstorms likely as several disturbances move through Friday
night into Saturday. The evolution of these showers/storms, and
if any storms can attain greater organization, is rather
uncertain but with modest instability and 40 to 50 knots of deep-
layer shear, some storm organization is possible which could bring
more severe weather to the region. Continue to monitor conditions
through the week.

Northwesterly upper level flow sets up for Sunday and into early
next week, likely allowing things to dry out.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A few showers are passing near KECP and KDHN this evening, so kept
VCSH in the TAFs for a few hours for them. Otherwise, generally
VFR conditions are expected elsewhere with light to moderate winds
out of the south to southwest much of the evening. There is a
chance most, if not all, TAF sites could experience MVFR
conditions later tonight into early Wednesday morning as a weak
front moves through the area. This front will be the focal point
for more showers and thunderstorms after 09Z tonight; most
guidance has this activity remaining south and east of our TAF
sites, however, it`s close enough to KTLH and KVLD to include some
VCTS in their TAFs for early Wednesday morning. Any showers and
storms that do develop should push southeast of the region. VFR
conditions are then expected during the day Wednesday with light
to moderate westerly winds that could be a little gusty at times
in the afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Elevated southwesterly flow continues for at least one more
overnight period which could lead to occasional advisory
conditions tonight until the front moves through Wednesday.
Storms should redevelop overnight, especially across the Apalachee
Bay, which will likely keep advisory conditions in place until
just after daybreak on Wednesday. Benign conditions move in for
late Wednesday and Thursday before another system moves through
over the weekend likely bringing advisory level winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A frontal system will be moving across the region over the next day,
behind it we`ll have elevated winds leading to high dispersions
tomorrow and Thursday. Additional rainfall through tomorrow is
expected to generally be confined to the FL Big Bend and Southern
Georgia. A few light showers could pop up across SE Alabama later
this afternoon and evening. Given the recent wetting rains that have
occurred over the last few days, there are currently no fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Rivers along the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins are rising
due to rainfall from the past 4 days and some will reach minor
flood stage through the middle of the week. Other rivers in the
region are slowly climbing but reaching minor flood stage is not
expected at these rivers. Additional rainfall is forecast this
weekend and this could bring further rises on area rivers or
extend the time in flood later this week. Rainfall amounts
generally will be around 1 to 3 inches, with the heavier amounts
across Georgia and Alabama but wouldn`t be surprised if we see
some of these higher amounts shift south.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  88  67  91 /  40  10   0   0
Panama City   71  84  69  86 /  30   0   0   0
Dothan        67  86  63  88 /  20   0   0   0
Albany        67  85  64  87 /  30   0   0   0
Valdosta      68  87  66  88 /  60  20   0   0
Cross City    68  85  68  88 /  80  50   0   0
Apalachicola  73  83  72  85 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs