Flood Potential Outlook
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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
323 PM EDT Thu Apr 8 2021 /223 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021/

...Multiple days of heavy rainfall expected through this weekend...
...Flash flooding possible Saturday and Sunday with riverine
flooding to follow early next week...

.Flood potential and concerns...

The initial event on Friday should be relatively isolated and
more dependent on where storms initiate early in the morning.
Model guidance at this time suggests this will be across South
Georgia and North Florida during the early morning hours through
late afternoon, with up to 2 inches of rain possible with
localized heavier amounts. While this is certainly not enough to
generate flash flooding or any riverine issues on its own, it will
create a more favorable environment for flash flooding for
Saturday`s rainfall.

Saturday`s system is expected to be more energetic and produce
widespread heavy rainfall. If this occurs over already saturated
grounds from Fridays event, this could lead to flash flooding
and in the days to come riverine flooding. Current forecasts are
for 2 to 4 inches of rain, especially across South Alabama, the
Florida Panhandle and into extreme Southwest Georgia. This results
in average storm total amounts of 4-6 inches across the western
half of our region, with isolated maximum amounts near 8 inches
possible. Lower values are expected east of an Albany to
Tallahassee line where 2-4 inches is expected throughout the
duration of the event.

For impacts with this rainfall, flash flooding will be a concern,
especially during Saturdays rainfall event. Areas most prone
to flash flooding in this event will be urban areas of Southeast
Alabama, extreme Southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.

Riverine flooding will take time to develop, given the
anticipated rainfall distribution. The Choctawhatchee, Chipola,
Apalachicola, and Lower Flint could all experience minor flooding
in the days ahead. Rainfall amounts within these basins that
exceed 6 inches, could lead to lower end moderate flooding by next
week. Further east, the Ochlockonee River could reach minor
flooding should 4 inches of rain fall upstream of Leon County.
Other remaining basins in the region could rise into the action
category, but minor flooding is unlikely based on the latest
forecasts.

.Preparedness Actions...

Should models continue to indicate an increased likelihood of a
heavy rainfall event on this weekend, a flash flood watch may be
issued for a portion of our area as soon as Friday morning.

Residents living in areas vulnerable to flash flooding, should
consider evaluating their flood risk and be prepared to take
action to protect themselves and property from flood damage.
People living near small streams and area rivers should also be
alert to rapid rises in water level and be prepared to take action
if warnings are issued.

For more information be sure to interact with our office through
twitter @NWSTALLAHASSEE.

$$

Godsey



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