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108
FXUS62 KTBW 191308
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
908 AM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

...Strong To Severe Storms Possible Today And Tuesday...
...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Today And Tuesday...

.UPDATE...
A quasi-stationary front across the central Florida peninsula
early this morning combined with ample moisture (PW 1.85 inches
via 12Z Raob data which is above the 90th percentile for this
date), along with upper level diffluence, a deep warm layer, and
vort lobes moving across the region within the strong mid level
wind flow will support enhanced rainfall potential across the
forecast area today through Tuesday with some locally heavy rains
possible, especially in areas where the training or back building
of storms occur with some minor flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas possible and much of the forecast area is in
Marginal Risk for excessive rain today.

In addition to the rain, modest instability combined with the
aforementioned mid level flow, effective shear in the 35-40 knot
range, and cold 500MB temperatures (-10C) may support some strong
to severe storms as well with damaging wind gusts and hail the
main hazards. Considerable cloud cover and high rain chances will
keep temperatures close to seasonal norms today with highs topping
out in the mid to upper 70s north, and around 80 to the lower 80s
central and south. Current forecast is on track with no changes
or updates required at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with a
frontal boundary across the central Florida peninsula will support
intervals of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys at all of the terminals through
the Taf forecast period and have handled with VCTS with short
tempo groups for the lower cigs/vsbys. Outside of the convection
marginal VFR can be expected. Southwest to west winds in the 10 to
15 knot range can be expected across the southwest terminals, and
west to northwest winds around 10 knots at the northern ones with
higher gusts in the vicinity of TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A stalled frontal boundary over the central Gulf waters will
meander about through mid week. Ample moisture and instability
combined with the front will support periods of showers and
thunderstorms across the waters at any time the rest of today
through Tuesday with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally
higher seas, and perhaps even a waterspout possible near the
strongest storms. Ongoing forecast is in good shape with no
changes expected in the next update around 10 AM.


&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/McMichael
UPPER AIR...29/Delerme
RADAR/DECISION SUPPORT...19/Hurt