Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 041133 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 633 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 .AVIATION... Stratus deck continues MVFR ceilings from SRQ northward. Farther south, these clouds are VFR with heights around 035. Expect this to gradually clear or scatter out by 15-16Z with prevailing VFR into Thursday. North winds 6 to 8 knots will become northeast 8 to 13 knots in the afternoon. By this evening, they will shift back to the north to northwest at around 5 knots. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 300 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021/ DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning will drift east today as a weak low drifts southward off the Florida east coast. This will continue the northerly flow of drier air into the region helping skies to become mostly sunny by afternoon. On Friday the fair dry weather will continue as the high and low pressure systems weaken with a lighter northeast flow across the area allowing for a shift to onshore near the coast during the afternoon. Friday night through Saturday we`ll see clouds increase along with the rain chances as a low pressure system moves east across the Gulf of Mexico and then out into the Atlantic Ocean Saturday night. This should bring some widespread rainfall, 0.33 to 0.75 inch, to the area late Friday night and Saturday. Following this system high pressure over the eastern U.S. will build in from the north on Sunday. This high then moves east out into the western Atlantic Ocean during early next week, but continues to ridge west across the Florida peninsula. A rather tight pressure gradient will become established across the region during this time leading to breezy northeasterly winds Sunday shifting to a more easterly direction for Monday through Wednesday. This flow will bring some Atlantic moisture westward, but it will remain trapped under the subsidence inversion leading to just some scattered to broken stratocumulus each day along with a gradual moderating trend. MARINE... High pressure will build in over the eastern gulf waters through tonight with northwest to north winds today veering to northeast tonight. During Friday the northeast winds will subside during the late morning allowing a sea breeze to develop shifting winds to onshore near the coast during the afternoon. Low pressure will move east across the Gulf of Mexico and south Florida Friday night and Saturday followed by high pressure building in from the north early next week. This will pattern will setup an increasing northeast flow Saturday into Sunday veering to more easterly early next week with speeds near advisory criteria, especially during each night with the nocturnal surge moving across the waters. FIRE WEATHER... Relative humidity values will dip into the 40s this afternoon away from the coast, with some mid to upper 30s across Levy county. On Friday we`ll see relative humidity values dip in the 30s across much of the area during the afternoon. No Red Flag conditions are anticipated though as winds and ERC`s remain below critical thresholds. Clouds and some rain are expected on Saturday keeping relative humidity values well above critical levels then drier air returns early next week. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 73 55 78 61 / 0 0 0 20 FMY 76 56 80 62 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 75 53 78 59 / 0 0 0 20 SRQ 73 54 79 61 / 0 0 0 20 BKV 75 45 79 54 / 0 0 0 30 SPG 72 59 76 62 / 0 0 0 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...42/Norman PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...69/Close

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