-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
737
FXUS62 KTBW 141804
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
204 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

An unsettled pattern expected to continue the next couple of a days
as a low pressure system currently off the east coast of FL
traverses west over FL before exiting into the Gulf sometime
tomorrow. Currently the National Hurricane Center has this area
marked with a low (20%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone
in the next 48 hours and a low (30%) chance in the next 7 days.
Regardless of development, plenty of rain is expected the next
couple of days.

Though most activity is currently south of I4,
showers and storms will begin to fill in later this afternoon into
the evening. Showers move offshore this evening, allowing for a
break in activity over land. However, showers once again develop
over the peninsula Tuesday morning, beginning more scattered in
nature then transitioning to widespread by the afternoon. Some
areas will receive multiple rounds of rain for the next couple of
days which can lead to localized flooding. Be sure to have
multiple ways to receive weather alerts. Remember to turn around
anytime you come to water over the road.

A more typical FL summertime pattern returns by the end of the week
with scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day. Temperatures at the
beginning of the week will remain in check by rain coverage.
Slightly above average temperatures return by the end of the week
into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions expected outside of shower and thunderstorm activity.
Unsettled conditions and ample moisture means showers could
develop anytime and anywhere. Most continue to move quickly to the
south when they do develop. Conditions quiet overnight before
ramping back up tomorrow morning
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025


Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate the over the next
couple of days as  a low pressure system moves over FL from the
Atlantic into the NE Gulf. Winds will increase overnight Tuesday and
stay elevated through the end of the week as the low moves
through the Gulf.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025


Fire weather concerns remain low as ample moisture leads to
widespread showers and storms through the week
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
TPA  78  87  77  89 /  70  80  70  80
FMY  74  85  75  90 /  80  80  50  80
GIF  74  86  75  91 /  60  80  30  80
SRQ  75  86  75  89 /  70  80  70  80
BKV  72  88  72  91 /  70  80  60  80
SPG  77  85  77  87 /  70  80  70  80
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley