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000
FXUS62 KTBW 041133
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
633 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.AVIATION...
Stratus deck continues MVFR ceilings from SRQ northward. Farther
south, these clouds are VFR with heights around 035. Expect this
to gradually clear or scatter out by 15-16Z with prevailing VFR
into Thursday. North winds 6 to 8 knots will become northeast 8 to
13 knots in the afternoon. By this evening, they will shift back
to the north to northwest at around 5 knots.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 300 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley this
morning will drift east today as a weak low drifts southward off
the Florida east coast. This will continue the northerly flow of
drier air into the region helping skies to become mostly sunny
by afternoon. On Friday the fair dry weather will continue as the
high and low pressure systems weaken with a lighter northeast flow
across the area allowing for a shift to onshore near the coast
during the afternoon. Friday night through Saturday we`ll see
clouds increase along with the rain chances as a low pressure
system moves east across the Gulf of Mexico and then out into the
Atlantic Ocean Saturday night. This should bring some widespread
rainfall, 0.33 to 0.75 inch, to the area late Friday night and
Saturday. Following this system high pressure over the eastern
U.S. will build in from the north on Sunday. This high then moves
east out into the western Atlantic Ocean during early next week,
but continues to ridge west across the Florida peninsula. A rather
tight pressure gradient will become established across the region
during this time leading to breezy northeasterly winds Sunday
shifting to a more easterly direction for Monday through
Wednesday. This flow will bring some Atlantic moisture westward,
but it will remain trapped under the subsidence inversion leading
to just some scattered to broken stratocumulus each day along with
a gradual moderating trend.

MARINE...
High pressure will build in over the eastern gulf waters through
tonight with northwest to north winds today veering to northeast
tonight. During Friday the northeast winds will subside during
the late morning allowing a sea breeze to develop shifting winds
to onshore near the coast during the afternoon. Low pressure will
move east across the Gulf of Mexico and south Florida Friday night
and Saturday followed by high pressure building in from the north
early next week. This will pattern will setup an increasing
northeast flow Saturday into Sunday veering to more easterly
early next week with speeds near advisory criteria, especially
during each night with the nocturnal surge moving across the
waters.

FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will dip into the 40s this afternoon away
from the coast, with some mid to upper 30s across Levy county. On
Friday we`ll see relative humidity values dip in the 30s across
much of the area during the afternoon. No Red Flag conditions are
anticipated though as winds and ERC`s remain below critical
thresholds. Clouds and some rain are expected on Saturday keeping
relative humidity values well above critical levels then drier air
returns early next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  73  55  78  61 /   0   0   0  20
FMY  76  56  80  62 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  75  53  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
SRQ  73  54  79  61 /   0   0   0  20
BKV  75  45  79  54 /   0   0   0  30
SPG  72  59  76  62 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...42/Norman
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...69/Close