Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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108 FXUS62 KTBW 191308 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 908 AM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021 ...Strong To Severe Storms Possible Today And Tuesday... ...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Today And Tuesday... .UPDATE... A quasi-stationary front across the central Florida peninsula early this morning combined with ample moisture (PW 1.85 inches via 12Z Raob data which is above the 90th percentile for this date), along with upper level diffluence, a deep warm layer, and vort lobes moving across the region within the strong mid level wind flow will support enhanced rainfall potential across the forecast area today through Tuesday with some locally heavy rains possible, especially in areas where the training or back building of storms occur with some minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas possible and much of the forecast area is in Marginal Risk for excessive rain today. In addition to the rain, modest instability combined with the aforementioned mid level flow, effective shear in the 35-40 knot range, and cold 500MB temperatures (-10C) may support some strong to severe storms as well with damaging wind gusts and hail the main hazards. Considerable cloud cover and high rain chances will keep temperatures close to seasonal norms today with highs topping out in the mid to upper 70s north, and around 80 to the lower 80s central and south. Current forecast is on track with no changes or updates required at this time. && .AVIATION... Areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with a frontal boundary across the central Florida peninsula will support intervals of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys at all of the terminals through the Taf forecast period and have handled with VCTS with short tempo groups for the lower cigs/vsbys. Outside of the convection marginal VFR can be expected. Southwest to west winds in the 10 to 15 knot range can be expected across the southwest terminals, and west to northwest winds around 10 knots at the northern ones with higher gusts in the vicinity of TSRA. && .MARINE... A stalled frontal boundary over the central Gulf waters will meander about through mid week. Ample moisture and instability combined with the front will support periods of showers and thunderstorms across the waters at any time the rest of today through Tuesday with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally higher seas, and perhaps even a waterspout possible near the strongest storms. Ongoing forecast is in good shape with no changes expected in the next update around 10 AM. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/McMichael UPPER AIR...29/Delerme RADAR/DECISION SUPPORT...19/Hurt

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