000
FXUS62 KTBW 201825
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
225 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge is over the central Gulf of Mexico this afternoon
with weak troughing east of Florida, and this pattern is keeping a
northwest flow aloft over the local area. At the surface, high
pressure remains centered over the western Gulf of Mexico. As we
head through tonight and Sunday, flow aloft becomes more west to
southwest as some shortwave energy moves across the northern Gulf
coast and a surface boundary moves into north Florida. Most of the
forecast area will remain warm and dry through the day, but we do
start to see some increasing rain chances later in the afternoon for
our far northern zones. The boundary makes slow progress southward
Sunday night into Monday, with increasing rain chances north to
south. A few storms will also be possible, and a strong one or two
cannot be completely ruled out, and the Storm Prediction Center does
keep much of the area within a marginal risk for severe weather.

High pressure moves over the southeast behind the boundary for
Tuesday, with the most noticeable difference for us being some lower
dew points (50s area-wide). We quickly moderate for Wednesday and
Thursday and really toward the weekend, with humidity and
temperatures increasing by a few degrees each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. The
only exception would be some patchy fog tonight, though confidence
is not high enough in impact for the TAF sites at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic for the
next couple of days, with light winds becoming west to southwest in
the afternoon. A cold front will move through the area Sunday night
through Monday, with a chance for showers and a few storms. Winds
quickly turn northerly on Monday and then northeast through the
middle part of the week. Overall, no headlines are expected, though
winds could briefly near exercise caution levels behind the
boundary.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns for the next few days as relative humidity
values will remain above critical levels. A cold front will move
through the area Sunday night into Monday, with drier air moving
into the region for mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  84  71  79 /   0  10  30  40
FMY  70  87  71  85 /   0   0   0  30
GIF  67  89  68  82 /   0  10  30  60
SRQ  67  85  70  82 /   0   0  20  40
BKV  61  85  63  79 /   0  10  40  40
SPG  72  82  72  79 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

05/Carlisle