Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
477
FXXX10 KWNP 181231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 18-May 20 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 18-May 20 2024
May 18 May 19 May 20
00-03UT 3.67 3.33 2.67
03-06UT 3.33 3.33 2.33
06-09UT 2.33 4.00 3.67
09-12UT 3.33 4.00 3.00
12-15UT 3.00 2.67 3.00
15-18UT 1.67 2.33 3.33
18-21UT 1.67 2.00 4.00
21-00UT 2.33 2.67 4.00
Rationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions
on 19-20 May due to possible glancing blows from CMEs that left the Sun
on 15 and 17 May.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 18-May 20 2024
May 18 May 19 May 20
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV protons
reaching S1 (Minor) levels on 18-20 May due to the flare potential of
Region 3685.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 17 2024 2108 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 18-May 20 2024
May 18 May 19 May 20
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a good chance for
further M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an
X-class flare (R3/Strong or greater) on 18-20 May.