National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 021556
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
856 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

.UPDATE...

-- Changed Discussion --Mid-level stratus exists up to the west side of the Continental
Divide, and extend further east across central MT. Elsewhere
skies are clear to partly cloudy under the westerly flow aloft.
Expect mild temperatures, along with gusty winds this afternoon
through boundary layer mixing. Overall forecast describes these
conditions well, so a morning update will not be posted.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --Mild and dry conditions continue today, with gusty winds at times.
Temperatures continue to warm through the end of this week with
less windy conditions likely as well. A turn toward cooler
conditions with increasing chances for precipitation is possible
late this weekend into next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION...
428 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 (02/12Z TAF period)

VFR conditions prevail through the period under a moderate westerly
flow aloft with some embedded moisture bringing scattered to broken
mainly high clouds. Isolated light precipitation and mountain
obscuration will be limited to areas near the continental divide.
Gusty southwest winds at the surface will increase again today,
mainly across north-central MT with continued potential for mountain
wave turbulence while some low level wind shear is also possible in
areas where surface winds remain lighter. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --/ISSUED 428 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021/

Westerly flow aloft continues across the region today with a
flattened upper level ridge in place while weak embedded shortwave
energy and limited moisture streams east across the Northern
Rockies and MT. Main impact from this will be gusty winds,
especially across north-central MT, under mid level flow of
45-55kts, resulting in 40-50 mph surface gusts along the Rocky Mtn
front and 30-40 mph gusts further east across the plains.
Moisture is very limited and mostly resulting in an increase in
higher level clouds though some light orographically forced snow
showers are possible along the Continental Divide in the Glacier
Park area through this evening. Temperatures remain fairly mild
today and should reach similar values to yesterday with lower
elevation areas seeing afternoon temps in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Ridging aloft amplifies Wednesday through Friday as flow turns
southwesterly while a cutoff low from the Pacific moves by well
south of the region. Some additional warming is expected Wednesday
along with less windy conditions and less cloud-cover beneath the
strengthening ridge. This continues through Thursday and Friday
as the ridge axis shifts east across the area. Afternoon
temperatures warm to about 15-20 degrees above seasonal averages
Thursday and Friday with a few locations likely to see temps as
warm as around 60 on Friday but likely below records which are
generally in the upper 60s to around 70.

Upper level trough from the eastern Pacific moves onshore Friday
night through Saturday bringing some cooling and a more zonal
westerly flow across the region by Sunday. Saturday still looks to
be another mild day for most of the area before clouds and the
potential for mountain precipitation increases Saturday night
into Sunday. Additional Pacific energy looks to move into the
western US early next week, carving out a larger scale upper
level trough and bringing an overall turn toward cooler
temperatures with increasing chances for precipitation. While
there still is a lot of uncertainty with details, the overall
weather pattern developing next week would favor widespread
precipitation/snow for the region at times. Hoenisch-- End Changed Discussion --

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 51 31 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 45 27 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 49 28 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 46 19 47 18 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 37 3 41 0 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 44 17 44 18 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 49 27 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 48 26 51 25 / 0 0 0 0

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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